National Party Leader Simon Bridges speaks during the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall. Photo / Getty Images
National Party Leader Simon Bridges speaks during the 83rd Annual National Party Conference at Christchurch Town Hall. Photo / Getty Images
COMMENT:
National Party leader Simon Bridges will have heaved a few sighs of relief at the latest 1 News Colmar Brunton poll.
The biggest of these will have been to see the National Party up at 45 per cent, well clear of the 40 per cent mark now seen asthe trigger point for trouble for Bridges.
There will also have been a quiet sigh of relief that Judith Collins had not gained any further ground against him.
The poll delivered precious little by way of a gain to Bridges himself – he managed to claw his way back up from 5 to 6 per cent in the preferred Prime Minister stakes.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison in mid-July. Photo / pool
Bridges' result is still well short of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 41 per cent – she was down four points but still unassailable.
It is hardly a miracle comeback for him, but in a drought every drop is precious and that was enough to put him back on equal footing with Collins, who had stayed at 6 per cent.
Collins has now been at that level for six consecutive polls dating back to October last year – a sign that despite all the chatter of a leadership change, she has not picked up the momentum to warrant it.
Nor has the National Party lost enough momentum to warrant it.
It is clear of Labour, which was on 43 per cent.
The poll was taken well before National's conference, including the cancer treatment announcement, but Bridges will see this poll as vindicating his decision to focus on cost of living attacks - and to pit his party's policies against Ardern's personality.
Both parties had been aware the poll was under way last week. Ardern did rare extended interviews with some media at the start of the polling period.
National's campaign against the Government's fuel tax increases and proposed "car tax" to help fund subsidies for electric cars was also at full tilt as the polling was under way.
That also bore fruit in the increase in those who were pessimistic about the economic outlook – up three points to 41 per cent.
The result is contrary to UMR's internal polling for the Labour Party - leaked during the polling period for 1 News in an apparent bid to muddy National's water – which had National below the 40 per cent mark.
It also helps give credence to the last Colmar Brunton poll in June, when two polls were released telling two very different stories.
Newshub's Reid Research poll in June had National plummeting to 37 per cent – well below Labour - while the 1 News poll had National at 44 – slightly above Labour.
The result will give Labour some pause for thought. But its greatest concern may be the high-wire routine its coalition and support parties face.
The Green Party was still hovering just above the electoral subsistence level at 6 per cent, but NZ First had plummeted to 3 per cent.
That will at least give Bridges a comeback next time Peters raises Bridges' polling.
