OPINION:
The benefit of a bad poll for a government is it can have the invigorating effect of a bucket of cold water.
It is for that reason that senior heads in National – including leader Christopher Luxon - are cautioning MPs against getting too cock-a-hoop about their chances.
It was issued after the 1News Kantar Public Poll put National and Act slightly ahead of the Labour – Green combination for the first time in a long time.
Luxon told his MPs to stay focused and disciplined. National knows Labour still has a lot of advantages in its favour, that the election is still easily within its grasp, and that the poll was taken at the worst possible time for the Government on the two fronts that matter most - Covid-19 and inflation.
National is aware Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern remains Labour's strongest asset and Finance Minister Grant Robertson is not far behind her.
They are also aware Ardern, Robertson and the third member of Ardern's triumvirate, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins, learned at the knee of Helen Clark and Sir Michael Cullen how to try to stave off a problem by pulling out a wily surprise.
The poll is effectively the canary in the mine: a signal Labour may need to move to the wily setting and perhaps soon.
Labour is tired after the never-ending scramble of reacting to Covid-19 and that has resulted in it taking its eye off the ball in other areas. Longevity in government relies on the ability to sense where the public mood is shifting and to shift with it. That is hard to do when one issue dominates so comprehensively for so long.
But Labour has two weapons at its disposal over the next 18 months that National does not have: two Budgets.
The large allowances Robertson has left himself for new spending could be deployed to scratch the itch that is most bedevilling the voters: cost increases.
Labour's response on the cost of living issue has been very flat-footed so far.
Luxon has hit Labour over and over again with three simple but effective lines: under Ardern's watch, rents are up by $140 a week, petrol is up by $45 a tank and food prices are up more than 13 per cent. He delivers these while talking about the "Kiwis who are doing it tough" who he's met on his travels around the country. He adds some question marks about whether the Government has its spending priorities right.
His push to get the Prime Minister to admit there is a "cost of living crisis" has echoes of Labour's attempts to get the former National government to admit there was a housing crisis.
Ardern's refusal to admit to any such crisis has echoes of former PM Sir John Key's refusal to admit to the same. Governments cannot afford to admit to a crisis on their watch.
But helped by inflation, Luxon and his finance spokesman Simon Bridges have succeeded in dragging the debate into territory Labour was not that keen or ready to go to: tax cuts.
Labour's current defence on the cost of living is simply not going to cut it for long.
Both Robertson and Ardern have pointed to inflation being a global phenomenon, courtesy of Covid-19 hurting supply lines and now the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Pointing out it is not all your fault and that people in other countries are also facing it does nothing to help ease the wallet pinch.
On Thursday, both Ardern and Robertson pointed to the targeted support Labour has put into the low and low-middle income families – support that was put in place well before inflation became a big issue.
Few would argue with that – but it offers sweet nothing for those in the middle.
On whether the Government will offer relief on petrol prices by easing fuel taxes, their defence is also weak. Both Robertson and Ardern have said they promised at the start of the term not to increase petrol taxes, and they had not done so.
Saying you were addressing the cost of living by not further adding to it is hardly a winning or convincing strategy.
Luxon has now put significant pressure on them to also come up with something more convincing for those on middle incomes, who are also feeling the strain.
When times are tight, people are more inclined to vote for themselves.
In that regard, Labour too needs to try to burn off the complacency in its ranks that inevitably comes with being a second-term government – and a majority government in particular.
On top of the question of its response on the cost of living will be the return to the spotlight of the other reforms that have caused controversy – from Three Waters and health to climate change and fair pay agreements.
Labour had hoped to use that period of majority power to put in place its big reforms, its legacy projects. It will have to reconsider some of those to decide whether they remain politically or fiscally viable. There will also be the quagmire of other problems which are the legacy of Covid-19: the backlog of elective surgeries and other health services, labour shortages, wounded industries trying to rebuild.
The other key reason for current disgruntlement with the Government is more easily dealt with: Covid-19. Ardern's greatest selling point in 2020 was that the country was Covid-free.
People voted for her not for Labour's reform programmes, but because she had kept them safe from Covid-19. She lost that advantage the moment Delta and then Omicron started spreading.
The consequences of the restrictions were also building up, and the backlash to them: people who could not come home, businesses folding, people losing jobs because of mandates or revenue.
Omicron has made it easier for the Government to pull back from them.
The architecture of the Covid-19 response is now being dismantled apace, even if many are yet to realise it because people are focusing on the Omicron outbreak.
When that eases, people will realise life is almost back to normal. Hotels used for MIQ will start turning back into hotels from April. New Zealanders overseas are returning easily. Soon international students, business and tourism travel will begin again. Holidays can be booked again.
Businesses will be busy gearing up to prepare for that.
Other controversial elements of the response are also likely to soon be scrapped: vaccination mandates will be reviewed in the next few weeks, as will vaccination passes.
The days in which the unvaccinated and vaccinated can lead similar lives could well be on the horizon.
In 18 months' time, unless a particularly virulent variant lands, the final tally for Covid-19 will be on the Government's side.
It won't be Covid-19 that decides the 2023 election, but it is certainly too soon to say Ardern's goose is cooked.
'He has disregarded our voice and continued with this divisive kaupapa.'