Claire Trevett: Cost of Living and National's tax on, tax off wobbles end a bad week for both Labour and National

OPINION:

Until Wednesday, National had Labour right where it wanted it ahead of Christopher Luxon's first annual conference as leader this weekend: on the ropes.

The week began, to National's surprise and delight, with an unexpected offering.

It came courtesy of the Cost of Living Payment – a key part of Labour's response to the cost of living strain on household budgets.

On Sunday, National's deputy leader Nicola Willis started getting reports people overseas had been told they would get the payment. She cued up two days of pain for the Government as the revelations flowed that it was not only overseas people, but some dead people getting it – and that only 1.3 million had got it, well short of the 2.1 million intended.

Labour had known all along that it was going to happen – IRD had told it. It just did not realise how ridiculous it would look when it did. So it deluded itself into thinking that explaining was winning.

Luxon needed a good hit up his sleeve ahead of his first National Party conference as leader this weekend.

Such things are rich pickings for party conferences – it's always useful to have the rank and file think that they have their rival on the ropes.

The sloppy delivery hit Labour in its Achilles heels of economic credibility and delivery.

It helped along nicely National's double-headed attacks: that Labour was a government that struggled to deliver, and was wasteful with taxpayers' money.

Illustration / Guy Body

Welcome to the pointy end of an economic hard time where it gets increasingly hard to justify spending money on anything but the basics – and a lot easier for your rivals to paint you as being sloppy with the purse.

By Wednesday the ball slipped back under the net to Labour's side of the court.

Luxon delivered Labour the chance to have a go at his main Achilles heel: his inexperience.

That has not yet manifested itself in one catastrophic instance, but like wasteful spending, an accumulation of events can have the same result eventually.

There is little wonder Labour has started pummelling away at Luxon's bamboozle and confuse moments – the Talbot Mills Research polling Labour relies on has shown Luxon dropping from a high of 29 per cent as preferred PM in March to 23 per cent now. His favourabilities have shifted from a net positive of 20 down to 6. It is still the best any recent National leader has managed – but it has given Labour heart that people are starting to ask whether Luxon is really ready.

Most of Luxon's troubles have been based on Luxon's apparent difficulty in giving a clear answer to a straight question – or tripping up on the details of what National's policies are. There have also now been too many occasions on which Luxon and Willis appear to have been on slightly different song sheets, which has added to confusion.

On the AM Show he was asked whether National was still committed to increasing health spending by inflation.

He waffled and so appeared to back away from an earlier pledge to do just that.

By mid-afternoon, Willis and then Luxon veered back to the original pledge – and then went even further, saying National would increase health spending by inflation "at an absolute minimum". That is effectively at least a $2 billion promise – and Willis added other factors such as population growth had to be taken into account on top of that.

Labour was quick to leap on any signs of confused policy positions. It was handy for its attack-lines: that National will cut spending to crucial public services such as health and education, and could not be trusted.

Then came what one Twitter wag referred to as National's tax on, tax off episode.

Asked by the NZ Herald's Thomas Coughlan about its policy to offer tax cuts by way of indexing tax thresholds to inflation, Willis revealed it was now under review and a brand new policy would be coming for the election year.

After much to-ing and fro-ing, Willis confirmed it would keep indexation in that new tax package – but was unclear how much inflation would be taken into account, most of all whether it would include the high inflation period after 2021.

The reason was that would cost $3 billion instead of the $1.7 billion cost of the original plan.

All of this will be little more than stuff and nonsense to those National Party members gathered in Christchurch for Luxon to take the stage at the conference. He is assured of a hero's reception after dragging the party up into a winnable position after years of trial and struggle for them.

But it was a gift for Labour.

When Ardern was asked about it all, she said "obviously the policies of the Opposition are for them, and whether voters think they are consistent and trustworthy is also a question for them".

What she meant was the policies of the Opposition were a matter for them – and for the MP of Remutaka – one Chris Hipkins.

Just before the PM said that, Hipkins had fired out a press release in his role as a Labour MP rather than a minister. That hammered Luxon for the "flip-flops" and prevarications, and put it down to Luxon's inexperience.

National's Chris Bishop fired back, accusing Labour of "dirty political games" and trying to divert attention away from its cost of living failure.

Ardern was right that it is up to voters to decide whether political parties are consistent and trustworthy. But it doesn't hurt her cause to prompt them to ask the question.

It's a question that no leader of a political party should get themselves into the position of having to be asked.

One consolation for National is that the Cost of Living payment is a bit of a gift that keeps giving. Labour now has to get through two more rounds of the payment going out over the next two months. But it will be better prepared next time.