Referendum good move by National in election year but neither Government nor public should choose flag.
Holding a referendum at the election about whether to change the New Zealand flag is electorally smart for National. The public debate so far seems to be more in favour than not; deep down it's an issue that makes us reflect from a sense of community about the ways we represent ourselves internationally as a nation and a culture.
It could result in many more voters going to the polls, because it's a historically significant moment that will impact on the lives of our children, grandchildren and great-great grandchildren. Even people who are not normally engaged in politics may feel it's an issue worth expressing a democratic choice over. This could translate into broader feelings of satisfaction with the status quo, which means voters are less likely to want a change of government.
However if, as is being speculated, the Government will also ask voters to select from a range of designs that have already been shortlisted by Cabinet, then John Key may as well hand over the swipe cards for the 9th floor of the Beehive to David Cunliffe now. Because that would well and truly be bad policy-making as well as electoral suicide.
Why suicide? Because having to choose between already shortlisted options will result in public lobbying and emotional debate that will distract voters from the more important electoral choices they have to make in the election. If public flag preference is tracked by opinion polls, those supporting less popular options may feel their vote won't count and be completely deterred from going to the polling booth. If there is widespread public dissatisfaction with the process and with the options being presented the target of dissatisfaction will be the Government and National will be the loser. This is not mere speculation. Enough is known about voter behaviour to predict that this will happen.