A bill giving legal recognition to same-sex couples could fail in Parliament this week with a number of MPs changing their votes on the legislation.
The Government is believed to have the 61 votes needed to pass the controversial Civil Union Bill.
But intense lobbying has been re-ignited before the second reading, set to take place on Thursday, and the numbers appear on a knife-edge.
MPs have been deluged with messages from the public - most opposed to the bill - on how to exercise their conscience vote.
The Campaign for Civil Unions yesterday doubted mainstream New Zealand was against the bill, believing the opposition was orchestrated by a small and extreme minority.
If the bill, reported back with no major changes from the justice and electoral select committee yesterday, passes the next hurdle it is expected to be passed under urgency next week.
Select committee chairman Tim Barnett said although most submissions to the committee opposed the bill, and the issues raised powerful emotions on both sides, "the job of the committee was to separate fact from emotion. We did that".
Seven of the 11 MPs on the committee backed the conclusions, a ratio reflecting public support for the bill in various opinion polls, he said.
Most of the committee's alterations to the bill were technical, except for its decision that the law should recognise comparable civil unions solemnised overseas.
The bill entitles same-sex and de facto couples to register a civil union, but does not change the Marriage Act.
An accompanying proposal, the Relationships (Statutory References) Bill, which adjusts a series of laws to give civil union couples the same rights as those in a marriage, was set to be passed at the same time.
It has been stalled after MPs on the committee saw problems in giving de facto couples the same rights as a marriage.
The Government is understood to have planned to pass the bill through both readings under urgency this week. But its lack of confidence over how the numbers will finally fall resulted in a change of heart.
Mr Barnett said he was "reasonably confident" the bill would pass.
The bill passed its first reading by 66 votes to 50, with some Government sources claiming it would finally get 70 of the 120 votes.
Three Labour MPs abstained during the first reading - Ashraf Choudhary, Winnie Laban and Janet Mackey. The first two did not return the Herald's call yesterday.
Mrs Mackey would not confirm her position, saying: "We'll see".
But it is understood the Government is expecting her vote, is hopeful of Mrs Laban's and is still in the dark over Dr Choudhary.
Tariana Turia's Tai Hauauru seat was vacant at the time of the first reading, pending her byelection, so she did not vote.
The Maori Party leader surprised some of her former Labour colleagues yesterday by announcing she would vote against the bill, with some interpreting it as a bid to reach out to conservative Maori voters.
Mrs Turia said she had considered the matter and did not believe the legislation was necessary.
National leader Don Brash and Rodney MP Lockwood Smith both voted for the first reading but said yesterday they were wavering.
Dr Brash said he was "quite troubled by the way the Government is basically ignoring the 90 per cent of [select committee] submissions which expressed great concern. I'm at this point not decided".
Dr Smith said people in his electorate were "very divided".
New Zealand First MPs Brian Donnelly and Ron Mark were the only parliamentarians in their party to support the bill initially.
Mr Mark will still vote in favour, but deputy leader Peter Brown said Mr Donnelly had signalled that he would instead support his call for a referendum.
LIKELY TO PULL THEIR SUPPORT
Stephen Franks
Gerry Eckhoff
Brian Donnelly
MAY PULL THEIR SUPPORT
Don Brash
Lockwood Smith
Pansy Wong
Heather Roy
LIKELY TO VOTE IN FAVOUR
Janet Mackey
Winnie Laban - especially if bill depends on her vote
UNKNOWN
Ashraf Choudhary
Civil Union Bill on a knife-edge
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