Usually, at these events, leaders just swoop in for a speech, then hightail it to the next diary entry. But Luxon stuck around and walked investors through everything from Official Investment Act changes to fast-track laws.
Media attending looking for quick wins and announceables soon realised they’d come to the wrong place. This was more about sending a targeted message to global investors that New Zealand is so keen and open for business even the Prime Minister is handing out fliers.
Much was made of the poll early in the week, and while the result, and the few that preceded it, should always be taken seriously, the threat of what would be quite a radically left-wing three-way alternative Government shouldn’t.
These polls are protest votes rather than shifting sands. To steal an eloquent phrase from Briscoes boss Rod Duke this week, they signal a “get your ass into gear”. A swift kick up the jacksie, if you will. Voters are frustrated at the lack of progress on bread-and-butter economic issues, but when push comes to shove, wouldn’t hand the Beehive keys back to the guy they just booted out for landing us here in the first place.
The biggest threat to Luxon’s leadership is not Chris Hipkins but Donald Trump.
This talk that Luxon will be rolled is naff.
The trigger-happy US President has two favoured weapons in his arsenal — one is slashing domestic Government spending, the other is tariffs. This week’s tariff equivalent of the blitz destroyed market gains made since February. Luxon and most of the rest of the world are hoping we all make like the Winston Churchill era: Keep calm and carry on.
Analysts disagree on the extent, but most now concede the risk of a US recession has risen. JP Morgan’s chief economist puts the risk at 40%, up 10 points. Goldman Sachs has it up five points to 20%.
The US economy is built like a brick s***house, and most expect it will weather the storm without slipping into recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). Inflation data out this week was better than expected and jobs remain stable.
But it doesn’t take much for the world’s largest economy to hurt the rest of the planet, and trading nations such as ours are particularly vulnerable. The Bank of France this week cut its 2025 growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.9% due to expected trade war impacts and a slow start to the year. By most accounts, we’re also off to a slow start, though dairy and beef remain bright spots and tourism ticked up to 93% of pre-Covid levels in February.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week put New Zealand’s growth at 1.4% for 2025 and 2.7% for 2026, though it, along with every economist you talk to, says tariff wars could yet put these projections at risk.
As previously pointed out in this column, Luxon’s ticket to a second term is pegged to New Zealand finding the G-spot (growth) in time for the election campaign.
Talk Luxon will be rolled is naff. MPs I’ve spoken to are a bit jittery and nervous off the back of a few poll numbers and some vibes — but nobody’s foolish enough yet to think changing horses midstream will fix the problem.
Changing leaders screams chaos and undermines one of the most compelling arguments the right has against a left-leaning Government — stability.
And to those who think David Seymour and/or Winston Peters run rings around Luxon, can you imagine how fast they’d be running around another newbie fresh from knifing their boss in the back with just a year on the clock before campaigning gets under way?
There’ll be no bloody coups back home while Luxon’s Everything Must Go salesman tour continues in India this week.
Daddy’s very busy with work, actually, and he’ll be in the job a while yet.
