Anti-coup protesters surround an injured man in Hlaing Thar Yartownship in Yangon, Myanmar on March 14, 2021. Photo / AP
Anti-coup protesters surround an injured man in Hlaing Thar Yartownship in Yangon, Myanmar on March 14, 2021. Photo / AP
OPINION
The crowds of protesters grow daily in Myanmar as rising numbers of people continue to demand the return of the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi.
The heavy-handed use of violence by the Myanmar military, including the use of live ammunition, has seen a steady increase in the death toll. I spent three years working for the UN in Myanmar and am still receiving frequent messaging and calls from my former staff and friends still in the country. The situation in Myanmar is very personal for me.
As the most senior UN official based in Rakhine state, l dealt often with the civilian and military leadership based in that region of Myanmar. My time living in Sittwe, the provincial capital of Rakhine, included the 2016 and 2017 violence against the Muslim Rohingya minority. I witnessed first-hand the atrocities and violence that elements of the Myanmar military are capable of when unleashed on a civilian population.
Thae Nu Naing, sister of Saw Pyae Naing, weeps by his body after the 21-year old anti-coup protester was shot and killed by Myanmar security forces. Photo / AP
The outlook for democracy in Myanmar looks fairly bleak at the moment. The military claim that the electoral roll for the 2020 election was compromised and that the country's election commission did not take seriously complaints of voter fraud and other irregularities.
The head of the army, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has sought to justify the military's actions as constitutional and has promised that fresh elections will be held after a year-long state of emergency. Judging from the mass demonstrations occurring around Myanmar, few people outside the military would appear to share his assessment or support his actions.
"The British Government is appalled by the security forces' use of deadly force against innocent people". Statement from the British Ambassador following violence in Hlaing Thar Yar and elsewhere in #Myanmar today.#WhatsHappeningInMyanmarpic.twitter.com/ucuj1rMjzK
Trumped-up charges have already been laid against Suu Kyi and other leaders of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). No doubt the compromised courts could find them guilty as charged, which will automatically prevent them from contesting any future elections. In the unlikely event that the courts and election commission actually find the accused innocent of the charges, the process will drag out and the NLD could well boycott any military-inspired new election as a fraud.
Talking with national and international UN colleagues still on the ground in Myanmar, the prospects for a peaceful solution appear bleak. The street protests, despite the violence unleashed by the military, are unlikely to go away.
Anti-coup protesters scatter during the ongoing police crackdown during a protest in Sanchaung township of Yangon. Photo / AP
The senior military leadership seem determined to consolidate their political power and, as illustrated in Rakhine State in 2016 and 2017, are quite prepared to unleash horrific levels of violence despite widespread international condemnation.
One hopeful sign could be the level of electoral support the NLD received in a number of military districts in last year's election. This would appear to indicate some elements of the army are receptive to real political change.
A split between hardliners and more moderate factions in the military might be one possible circuit-breaker, especially if elements of the army find the escalating bloodshed just too much to stomach. A recent defection of police officers across the border to India is another sign that there are not uniform hardline views in the security apparatus.
A potential exit ramp for the military from the present standoff could be the staging of a new election (as they have promised) but under a new constitution. This new constitution could be based on proportional representation, similar to our MMP system.
People raise their hands with clenched fists while others hold up mobile phones with LED lights on, during a candlelight night rally in Yangon. Photo / AP
Such a constitutional change could see the right-wing military-backed USDP Party given a fighting chance of getting enough votes to join the 25 per cent of automatic seats in the Parliament already assigned to military officers under the existing constitution.
This could give the leader of the coup, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, a legitimate pathway to the Presidency. However it's hard to see a new election based on a new voting system being acceptable to the NLD.
"There is growing evidence that the #Myanmar military is now likely engaging in crimes against humanity, including the acts of murder, enforced disappearance, persecution, torture, and imprisonment in violation of international law," -- @RapporteurUn reports to #HRC46pic.twitter.com/RxH7vLzDkq
Clearly China, Myanmar's powerful neighbour and largest trading partner, has one of the best opportunities to exert real pressure on the military leadership. Two other countries, Singapore and Japan, also have considerable leverage. Singapore is the largest foreign investor in Myanmar's burgeoning economy and Japan is the largest aid donor to Myanmar.
If the military is successful in crushing democracy in Myanmar, it will be another blow to democratic reform in ASEAN.
Chris Carter. Photo / Greg Bowker
Neighbouring Thailand has seen the military successfully end another democratically elected government, in Bangkok in 2014. The commander of the Thai army, General Prayut Chan-OCha, remains in charge of the country today; an example no doubt which has encouraged hardliners in the Myanmar military.
Myanmar calls itself the Golden Country. This description refers to the gold leaf that covers thousands of Buddhist religious sites all over the nation.
For me, like many other foreigners who have visited this beautiful country, the nation and its people remain forever in your heart. It saddens me to witness the violence and death which is currently gripping the golden country.
ā¢ Chris Carter was a senior UN official in Myanmar and is a former Labour Party Minister
