China flexes its muscles

Auckland's Chinese community lined up to visit two Chinese navy ship. Photo / Natalie Slade

On September 11 last year, two steel grey navy vessels tied up at the bottom of Queen St. Their arrival slipped mostly under the public radar.

Within the Chinese community though, the presence of the People's Liberation Army warships was celebrated as visitors to the Navy ships posed for photographs with smiling members of the 568 crew.

Blue water PLA ships have been calling in to New Zealand ports for a decade without much notice or fuss. But half the world away in Asia, China's neighbours watch warily as Beijing sharpens its military teeth on land and at sea to reinforce its economic clout.

China has more than 1000 ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan, constructed a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines and in January surprised the world when it unveiled pictures of its own stealth fighter aircraft.

The Communist giant is still a long way from building a military as strong as the United States. But as the debt-ridden US Government looks to cut defence costs, China, the world's second largest economy, continues to invest in military hardware.

For the past two years, its defence budget grew by 15 per cent a year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

This year, Beijing tightened the reins to 3.8 per cent, though analysts believe the real total could be higher, given that China's defence budget is only partly disclosed.

China has not fought a major conflict since a border war with Vietnam in 1979 and is not a Soviet-style Cold War rival threatening American soil.

But its militarisation raises questions about whether the US can meet its commitment to maintain a strong presence in the Asia-Pacific region - a matter not just of global prestige but also seen as critical for safeguarding shipping lanes vital for world trade and protecting allies.

The last time an American warship called on New Zealand - nearly three decades ago - all hell broke loose.

Yet our Defence White Paper calls the United States a "close security partner", while expecting a rapidly arming China to "pursue its interests in a more forthright way".

In diplomat-speak, that means don't be surprised when China flexes its muscles.

Over the past decade China has pressed sea claims off its shores with belligerence. It confronted South Korea over the Yellow Sea's Socotra Rock and Japan over the Okinotori Islands, 2000km away in the Pacific.

Just last year China tangled again with Japan over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. All these are small specks of land with the potential to become large points of friction.

Prime Minister John Key insists that New Zealand has "nothing to fear" from China fast becoming a superpower. But many defence experts and strategic analysts, particularly in Australia where the sense of a restive and militarily ambitious Middle Kingdom is more acute, say while we may have nothing to fear, we have plenty to keep us awake.

Hugh White, Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, argues that conflict involving China in Asia, though not inevitable, is now a "serious risk".

White argues that Wellington and Canberra need to be urging Washington and Beijing to strike a deal where they can live with each other in Asia - the US by accepting China as an equal, China by relinquishing any ambitions to push its rival superpower out of the world's most dynamic region.

Another Australian, Ross Babbage, wants the Lucky Country to erect a potent shield to deter PLA steel. In vivid imagery Babbage, who helped draw up Australia's defence white paper, suggests equipping his country's forces with the military strength to "rip an arm off any major Asian power" that dares attack it.

So what are China's ambitions? The short answer is no one in the West is completely certain.

Michael Thwaites, who has served as New Zealand Ambassador to China, cautions that trying to read China is a fraught and complex task.

"My strong view (and it's the view of most China-watchers in the West) is that China does not have malevolent strategic objectives and does not pose a security threat to the West."

The former diplomat expects that relations with China will get harder, not easier.

New Zealand, he suggests, may come under enormous pressure to take sides against China, given the alarm that China's rise has triggered in some Western capitals. Trouble, he fears, lies down this path, because it is hardly the way to encourage China's leadership to engage with the global community.

In our favour though is the heavy economic dependence on China shared by the very same countries that fret about its military expansion - the US, Japan, India and Australia. "We have to hope that this will soften their alarmist rhetoric."

Jian Yang, senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of Auckland, senses that New Zealand may need to walk a tightrope in its relations between China and the US. Yang, who is Chinese, says both giants are crucial to New Zealand's future well-being. "It is important that New Zealand retains its independence in its foreign policy and avoids siding with one against the other."

Experts describe relations with China as very strong.

For a small, remote country, a steady stream of high-level Chinese officials comes calling. New Zealand keeps its criticism of China's bleak human rights record out of public earshot and it chafes Canberra that the lucrative free trade deal NZ signed in 2008 continues to elude Australia.

Despite this Robert Ayson, who directs the Centre for Strategic Studies at Victoria University, says New Zealand shouldn't kid itself that it can remain insulated from tensions.

In the next 20 years, China would become more influential in the Asia-Pacific, the US less so: "The question is can they cut a deal, so America gets to keep face and China gets the recognition and status that it considers it needs and deserves?"

Throw into the mix Japan's increasing nervousness about China's designs on what its rulers call the First Island Chain - a line that takes in Japan, Taiwan and south to the Philippines - and India's emerging ambitions.

Warns Ayson: "I wouldn't want to put money on the prospect that it's going to be entirely peaceful and smooth."