China covers all bases as APEC leaders gather

The Prime Minister leaves for the Apec talks in Shanghai on Thursday. JOHN ARMSTRONG says the summit will be dominated by the global response to combating terrorism.

Don't expect to see anti-globalisation protesters rampaging through the streets of Shanghai during this week's Apec meetings.

Bustling Shanghai may be China's most cosmopolitan metropolis. But it is not Seattle or Genoa. The Chinese brook no disruption of their gatherings of world leaders - and this is the biggest they have hosted.

For obvious reasons, security has been ratcheted up several notches, given that the Presidents of the United States, Russia and China will be in town.

More than 10,000 police and security personnel have been mobilised, with People's Liberation Army soldiers guarding checkpoints on roads leading into Shanghai.

The last time Apec leaders were confronted by an international crisis was at the Auckland summit two years ago. But unlike East Timor, collective action against terrorism will be the main item on the agenda, rather than being treated as something separate from formal business.

Apec is technically an economic forum, but the justification for including such a heavy-duty political subject is the likely economic effects of the September 11 terrorist attacks on Pacific Rim economies, some of which have only tentatively recovered from the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

As with East Timor, Apec has another opportunity to demonstrate a wider relevance beyond its free trade agenda. As one observer notes, the leaders of the world's three great powers - George W. Bush, Vladimir Putin and Jiang Zemin - will join hands in a spectacular photo opportunity that will capture the new alignment of world powers in common cause against terrorism.

According to a draft text, the 21 Apec leaders will "unequivocally condemn in the strongest terms" the terrorist attacks against the US "as a profound threat to the peace, prosperity and security of all people, of all faiths, of every nation".

They will call for the early signing of an international convention restricting the financing of terrorism and seek action on money laundering, aviation security, energy security and customs checks. But the text makes no specific mention of Osama bin Laden or the US-led bombings of Afghanistan.

The statement has been carefully worded to ensure unanimous approval. China is keen to avoid acrimony, given that Apec includes Malaysia and Indonesia, which have large Muslim populations.

The big question is whether the unity will stretch to kickstarting moves to further break down trade barriers to stimulate economic growth and stave off recession.

Apec's broad goals of open borders for goods and investment over the next two decades remain in place. But the will to move faster has been lacking - as evidenced by last year's summit in Brunei.

Member economies have instead opted for the fallback option of negotiating cosy bilateral deals country-to-country, rather than relying on Apec to ensure all export products are treated equally and not shut out of some markets.

But the prospect of global recession will focus minds in Shanghai. The communique issued after this year's meeting is expected to give impetus for a new round of world trade negotiations to get under way after the Mike Moore-led World Trade Organisation meets in Qatar next month.

Officials are cautiously optimistic there is now more enthusiasm for a new trade round - stalled for two years - than Apec leaders have shown at recent summits.

Much will hinge on the drive displayed by the Chinese as hosts and Apec's chair. Given his country's export reliance on a strong American economy, it it likely President Jiang will show some leadership and steer debate.

Reflecting Helen Clark's social democratic ethos, New Zealand's priorities for the meeting include securing an "enhanced role" for trade unions in Apec to balance the loud voice of business.

But Helen Clark may find little support for the idea - only Canada and possibly South Korea may back such an initiative.

Scheduled to lead debate on Apec's future during the leaders' retreat, the Prime Minister will suggest a strengthening of the Apec secretariat in Singapore and measures to ensure member economies carry out agreed decisions.