Auckland's new demographic means the new council will face many challenges, writes Fran O'Sullivan.
The brute reality is that Auckland will not succeed if it focuses all its attention on the wealthier sectors. Three years ago, I was struck when trends expert Jude Hoosen said Aucklanders needed to realise that many of their bright young future leaders will be Maori or Pacific Islanders.
Hoosen - who is part of the Providence Report forecasting team - had found many Auckland businesses are ill-prepared for the major demographic changes that will take place in the next 10 years.
The 2006 Census threw up a major divergence between multicultural Auckland vs bicultural New Zealand. In Auckland just 56 per cent are Pakeha - compared with 69 per cent for New Zealand as a whole.
In Auckland Asians now out-number Pacific Islanders and Maori are a clear minority. Nationwide, Maori are almost twice the combined percentage of Asian and Pacific Islanders.
There are Middle Easterners (2 per cent), Latin Americans and Africans.
In 2001, 32 per cent of the region's population was born overseas. By 2006 that figure had grown to 37 per cent, compared with 22 per cent for New Zealand. Latest forecasts now show that about 70 per cent of all new settlers coming to New Zealand choose to live in Auckland. These major demographic shifts have taken place in a very short time. It's what makes Auckland an exciting melting pot.
The Providence Report's research indicates that bringing the arts, cultural, design and creative sectors to the fore will go a long way to defining the personality of a city.
But these rapidly changing demographic trends also pose challenges for city planners. Different ethnicities are congregating in various suburbs: South Africans "on the Shore"; and Asians in Howick.
The new Auckland Council - which will be tasked with producing a spatial plan for the Super City - will not be able to come up with a "one size fits all" plan. It must take into account - and cherish - the differences which make Auckland different to the more homogenous cities elsewhere in New Zealand.
The effects of Auckland's changing ethnic make-up has implications for businesses, which are already facing difficulties coming to grips with diversity in the workplace. Pakeha are not reproducing at as fast a clip as others, and immigration patterns exacerbate the trend as many - some 70 per cent of immigrants - make Auckland their first staging post on arrival here.
Forecasts for 2016 show that Pakeha children will be just 38 per cent of 0- to 14-year-olds in Auckland. Pacific and Asian groups will each have 23 per cent - with Maori at 16 per cent. At national level, Pakeha children will still dominate at 55 per cent, but Maori children will make up 22 per cent of the age segment.
The Providence Report found that while more Maori and Pacific Islanders are getting university degrees they often feel excluded from top jobs and business is not doing enough to nurture local talent. There is also a danger that ethnic groups will become segregated or ghettoised in various suburbs, increasing the difficulty disadvantaged children face in trying to move up or out.
For instance, North Shore school leavers are more likely to have attained NCEA Level 2 or higher than those living in Papakura. Some 84 per cent of Asian school leavers leave school with qualifications NCEA Level 2 or higher; for Maori school leavers the figure is about 40 per cent.
Bridging these disparities will sorely test the capabilities of the new mayor of Auckland and his council. One of the ways to "democratise" opportunities is to use teaching methods that can draw on the planned ultra-fast broadband so that top-class education is made available to a wider cross-section of Aucklanders.
But the new mayor also needs to get a strong focus on Manukau - which is still bearing the brunt of the domestic recession, and, the decision of a number of key Auckland-based manufacturing companies to shift some production lines offshore.
This will require adroit thinking.
The mayor should also not overlook the work done by Auckland businessman Peter Menzies who has headed a programme to get business people to help inspire success in low-decline schools. It is now accepted there needs to be a better match between what schools teach and what businesses need so that disadvantaged children are better placed to get jobs. The brute reality is that Auckland will not succeed if it focuses all its attention on the wealthier sectors. Unless there are strong employment opportunities for all, social problems will continue to grow.
* From the New Zealand Herald feature, 'Project Auckland - our city'
