Wairarapa-Bush's NPC third division rugby match with South Canterbury at Memorial Park, Masterton tomorrow could well be a pointer as to how the competition will pan out in 2005.
The TAB sports betting agency doesn't always get it right of course, but they do have the benefit of extensive research.
So when they are tipping Wairarapa-Bush as the team to beat in the third division series, and South Canterbury as their main rivals, it's easy to see why the result of tomorrow's encounter could very possibly be a sign of things to come a little further down the track.
It is fair to say that if Wairarapa-Bush have had a bogey team at third division level, it has been South Canterbury.
The green-and-blacks have registered some comprehensive wins in games between the two ? especially at home ? and even last season when Wairarapa-Bush made the grand final, the best they could do against South Canterbury was a draw
It is probably fair to say too, that when the 2005 NPC kicked off South Canterbury, even within their own management, were anticipating a somewhat slower start to their season.
After all they only had six of last season's squad back on deck, and a decision not to rely on "imports" to boost their playing resources was hardly likely to help their cause either.
But while their inexperience has been a limiting factor to some degree, they have still managed wins over West Coast and Mid-Canterbury and a narrow loss to King Country in a game in which they led 17-7 at one stage.
Results of those proportions suggest then that South Canterbury are already very much in the contest for the third division title, and that yet again they have to be seen as a possible stumbling block for Wairarapa-Bush.
That said, it would still rank as a surprise if Wairarapa-Bush failed to take away maximum points, four points for a win and an extra bonus point for scoring four or more tries.
The home side have bounced back from a shock loss to Buller, (who have gone on and won their next two games) with an impressive thumping of Horowhenua-Kapiti and a close-fought win over King Country, and it's hard to dismiss the feeling that 2005 is going to be their year.
Certainly there wouldn't be a side in third division play with more scoring potential in their backs, and if they can release that potential on a regular basis there should be no stopping them.
Wairarapa-Bush coach Peter Russell is right when he consistently talks about attacking brilliance in the backs, basically counting for nothing if the forwards aren't doing their job.
It's the old story, isn't it, of possession being nine-tenths of the law, and Russell knows that if his forwards don't call the tune on a regular basis up front, then any chance of Wairarapa-Bush attaining what will be the very last third division title will be down the gurgler.
There were enough deficiencies in the Wairarapa-Bush forward effort against King Country last weekend to suggest they are anything but a home run yet.
Up against opposition which revolved most of their play around their big pack, Wairarapa-Bush had problems in the scrum and in containing the rolling drive. And they were also guilty of conceding a number of penalties around the fringes of the mauls and rucks because of offside play.
South Canterbury's forwards won't be as formidable a threat as those from King Country in terms of size, but from all accounts, they are a mobile lot destructive enough to create turnovers, and quick enough to turn them to advantage.
That being the case the smart tactics for Wairarapa-Bush could be to play a little more conservatively than what is their normal style.
They could be tempted to place trust in their pack, having the edge on South Canterbury for sheer ruggedness in the tighter exchanges, in particular, and to wait maybe as long as all of the first half before allowing their backs to cut loose.
If that is the ploy, then the inside combination of James Bruce and Patrick Rimene will be a key factor in the Wairarapa-Bush game plan.
It will up to them to choose the options which ensure their pack is kept on the front foot and how they perform that task could well decide whether the short odds the TAB have on Wairarapa-Bush winning this particular match, and indeed the entire third division series, are justified.
B TEAM
The Wairarapa-Bush Bs have won two from two in their central region competition, and will be aiming to maintain that winning streak when they play their Wanganui counterparts at Memorial Park No.2 tomorrow.
Coach Steve Thompson has been pleased with the progress made by his side, but believes they will need to up their performance to beat what is reputed to be a well-balanced Wanganui combination.
In an effort to boost the midfield defence, which was a little shaky in the victory over Poverty Bay last weekend, Thompson has moved the versatile Steve Olds from No.8 to second-five and Glen Bunny from fullback to centre. They are both strong tacklers who will add oomph to the attack as well.
Interesting too is the placing of promising East Coast youngster Te Maika Mason at fullback. He played most of his club rugby at first-five and made a good impression there.
The Wairarapa-Bush B team is: Te Maika Mason; Lance Stevenson, Glen Bunny, Steve Olds, Dave Murdoch; Darren Yates; Charlie Bargh; Stacey Grant; Nathan Rolls, Norm Henricksen, Tim Fleming, Tom Sargent; Lee Paku, Bruce McKenzie, Darren Walker. Reserves: Sean Bicknell, Duncan Rutherford, Ken Kaiwai, Brendan Walker, Morgan Davies, Scott Gudsell, Sam Walsh.
Both the Wairarapa-Bush under-16s and under-18s will also be involved in curtain-raiser games at Memorial Park tomorrow.
The under-16s play Manawatu in a match kicking off at 11.30am while the under-18s are up against Wanganui in a game starting at 1pm.
Chance for the boys to beat the bogey
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