Our parliamentary democracy is one of the world's most stable and continuous, but things are starting to creak. These days virtually no one is a member of a political party, voting is a minority sport among those younger than 24 (and a spectator sport for nearly half a million others), and there is deep-seated cynicism about the political class. People are walking away from organised politics, and unless something is done, many of them will never return.
Notwithstanding the slight improvement in voter turnout at this year's election, the steady decline in young people enrolling and/or voting means an entire generation is at risk of being lost to the electoral process. Members of some migrant communities will join young people on the political sideline. With the poor, unemployed and swathes of the Maori population, these groups are drifting towards the democratic margins.
The contours of political divisions between urban areas and the regions will become sharper. As the critical mass of voters in Auckland grows, the city's social and economic imperatives will dominate the political agenda. The rural "heartland" will continue to exert an emotional hold on politics, but that will fade into nostalgia as the regions slide into economic obscurity.
Politicians' resolve to attend to the wellbeing of all sections of society will be tested as those with political clout (those who vote; the wealthy; urban interests) press for policies that suit them, but which may be at odds with the needs of the growing political underclass (those who don't vote; the poor; rural interests).
How do we stop this from happening? There are four things the Government could do immediately: (1) abolish the one electorate seat threshold, so parties must cross the party vote threshold before gaining list seats; (2) kick-start the move to online voting; (3) make voting compulsory, as long as; (4) a redesigned ballot paper is introduced to allow voters to register a protest vote.
