Cabinet to look at bird flu powers

A number of law changes expected to increase the powers of authorities to combat a bird flu pandemic will be considered by the Cabinet next week.

Although details of laws and regulations wanted by officials have not been outlined, they are expected to focus on emergency powers to limit the impact of any pandemic.

They could restrict people's movement, extend quarantine rules and enforce closure of schools and churches.

Powers already exist to control risks in national emergencies, and some of the changes are expected simply to add an influenza pandemic to the lists of threats where special powers can be invoked.

However, it is also likely stiffer sanctions for breaching laws during such an emergency will be considered.

A Wellington seminar on managing the risks of a pandemic heard yesterday that the country's borders would be likely to close if there was an outbreak of human-to-human bird flu abroad - which is not yet happening - and could be triggered by Singapore or Australia shutting their borders.

That would cause its own problems because thousands of travellers would be likely to be in the air and headed here - 6000 to Auckland alone and another 1500 to Christchurch - when ports were closed.

Those people would either be turned around, depending on the aeroplane's fuel levels, or potentially placed into quarantine on arrival. Officials admitted yesterday that planning was still underway to work out how to manage that.

Another 240,000 travellers could be stranded here.

"Nobody will get in, nobody will get out," said the Ministry of Health's manager of pandemic planning, Steve Brazier.

The good news, he said, is "you don't all die. With luck, 98 per cent or more of people will survive".

Those figures are based on the death rate from the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed 8000 New Zealanders.

Mr Brazier declined to outline possible law changes to be presented in a paper to the Cabinet on Monday.

He told the seminar, however, that they would involve both mechanisms for coping with a pandemic and sanctions.

He said later most of the changes would be technical.