Cabinet reshuffle on cards

Government ministers are on tenterhooks, with the prime minister poised to reshuffle some of the biggest portfolios and most senior ministers.

Key are the positions of "Blues Brothers" Trevor Mallard and Steve Maharey: trusted lieutenants who once posed together as the black-suited duo, and have collaborated in revamping the education sector.

Helen Clark and deputy Michael Cullen are keeping their cards close, with even most senior advisers kept in the dark. Government sources believe Mr Mallard could relinquish his job as Education Minister to Mr Maharey if the reshuffle goes to plan in the next eight days.

Ministers have been told every card in the pack - with the exception of the portfolios held by Helen Clark and Dr Cullen - could be up in the air.

The Herald on Sunday understands the prime minister will not promote any new MPs into Cabinet - going into election year with two empty chairs at the table.

She can ensure the good behaviour of ambitious politicians like Damien O'Connor and Steve Chadwick, by keeping them waiting for promotion into one of the vacant seats.

One vacancy was created by the sidelining of John Tamihere, and one will be created when Parliament replaces Jonathan Hunt as Speaker.

Though Mark Burton has the inside-running for the Speaker's job when Hunt resigns to be High Commissioner to London in March, sources say it is not a done deal. Assistant Speaker Ross Robertson is expected to make a play for the job, and Health Minister Annette King may be in the running.

If Ms King got the nod, that would put all three of the biggest-spending portfolios up for grabs: health, education and social development.

Should Mr Burton get the nod, his portfolios of defence, state-owned enterprises and tourism could be allocated to junior Cabinet ministers like Rick Barker and David Benson-Pope. Though defence minister is a senior role, the government has done all it wants in restructuring the defence forces. If Labour returns to Government next year, defence would be a relatively low-profile, oversight role.

The selection of Speaker is integral to the reshuffle: Clark is likely to make her preferences known in the next week and then seek Labour's endorsement after the holidays.

If Mr Maharey takes on education, it is expected he would continue to handle tertiary while delegating primary and secondary education. Mr Mallard could retain responsibility for pre-school education. It is unlikely Maharey could simultaneously handle two of Cabinet's biggest portfolios - education and social development - meaning he would have to hand social development to another minister.

George Hawkins is expected to keep his seat, but his main portfolio, police, could be handed to a safer pair of hands such as Paul Swain.

- THE HERALD ON SUNDAY