The Opposition parties are not about to give up on the anti-asset sales campaign despite the Government having squeaked through the sale legislation yesterday. And why would they? Not only do they have an issue that puts them onside with a sizable majority of voters, but the issue is proving incredibly useful in uniting Labour, the Greens and New Zealand First. And for a change, they have been disciplined about attacking the Government, not each other. This ability to work together and punish the Government's many weaknesses lately - especially over assets sales - has made their political alliance appear more formidable than ever. But just how united and effective is this new coalition?
For an insight into how things are going, both in front of the cameras and behind the scenes, this week's must-read article is Jonathan Milne's Unholy alliance: National's united opposition. Competitive tensions are still evident, particularly in Grant Robertson's comments about the Greens, and the real test will be to maintain the focus of their attacks through 2014. Like many relationships, as long as the going is good it will be easy, but if one party starts to gain at the other's expense then the alliance will cease being so cosy on the Opposition side of the House. Naturally, there is already some feeling that the Greens continue to do better out of the anti-asset sales campaign than Labour - see, for example Robert Winter's blogpost, Greens marginalising Labour in the media?.
Labour is promising much more action on the asset sales, especially as the petition and referendum gather momentum - see Dene Mackenzie's Unrest predicted as petition grows and asset-sale moves proceed, but the Greens have also invested heavily in the petition's success. A successful petition and referendum for the parties has more, of course, to do with the next election than actually stopping the sales. While they can claim the class size and conservation mining backdowns prove National can actually be stared down, it is almost inconceivable that the Government would bow to a non-binding poll in which the result is pretty much a forgone conclusion.
The most likely fly in the ointment for the privatisation programme will probably come from 'the market'. Vernon Small's A Mighty flop might sink sales looks at the balancing act the Government must perform to ensure both taxpayers and the legendary (mythical?) 'mum and dad investors' aren't feeling ripped off after the sales. Even if the price is 'not too hot and not too cold' the normal profit-taking that often follows large floats bears political risk.
There are also the ever present dangers of successful court challenges, not only because they may delay the sales, but because precautionary measures to head them off, such as reserving shares for treaty settlements, are politically toxic - see Adam Bennett's Legal fight over asset sales likely. The Prime Minister seems confident that the challenges 'have no merit', but University of Otago law lecturer Jacinta Ruru disagrees - see: Iwi case over asset sale valid - Expert. The Government has been warned by the Maori Council not to try and play 'Maori off against Maori' to get around the challenges - listen to the RNZ interview, Maori Council decries one-off compensation for Tuwharetoa.
