Timing may not be everything in politics - but it's right up there. With an admission yesterday that a legal challenge to the asset sales programme was 'a high probability', the PM's cockiness over the flagship policy all going to plan is quickly disappearing. 'We certainly hope it's not delayed' doesn't exude a lot of confidence - see: Duncan Garner's John Key concedes likely asset sales delay. Comparing the chances of a delay to that of a meteorite hitting the earth today was probably a mistake as Toby Manhire points out that several thousand meteorites hit the earth every day - see: Facts bugger up John Key's meteorite analogy. For a more statistically reliable measure, iPredict stocks say there is a 67.5% chance Mighty River Power will not be sold this year and a 27% chance it won't be sold in 2013 either - see Hamish Rutherford's Punters pick SOE sale delay.
Significant delay could have several results writes Anthony Robins at the Standard - see: Asset sale delay likely. They include more time for the anti-sales petition and referendum, further scrutiny on how the numbers add up for taxpayers, a reduction in sale price of the shares and to 'increase the already incredible pressure' on the Maori Party to walk from government.
Maori Council Chair Manu Paul certainly left Turia and Sharples in no doubt about his views, saying they had 'become "virtually useless" at representing Maori' and that a crucial decision was upon them: 'Their political life is almost at the "OK Corral stage"' - see TVNZ's Maoridom turning cold on Maori Party.
With such hostility from the Maori Council and a final shootout being very unlikely this week, the Maori Party's only hope of riding through this crisis rests with a directly negotiated settlement with individual Iwi or the Iwi Leaders Group. The Prime Minister was talking up that option yesterday (see Danya Levy's Key: Keep treaty out of water issue, downplaying the usefulness of the Waitangi Tribunal in settling claims and the representativeness of the Maori Council. He was advised by lawyer and Mana Party President Annette Sykes to get a law degree or stay quiet on the issue: 'He really does not understand the complexity of the overlay of rights relating to resources like water' - see Claire Trevett's PM warned to leave water rights issues to the lawyers. It might be good advice, as a letter from Key to Iwi leaders from three years ago was tabled at the tribunal yesterday, including an acknowledgement that Maori had 'specific rights and interests' in fresh water - see Claire Trevett and Adam Bennett's Key acknowledged water rights in 2009.
Richard Long, who was Don Brash's Chief of Staff during the time of Brash's Orewa speech thinks Key should resist the temptation to call a snap election over the furore, advising instead a 'face-saving formula such as the guardianship solution' - see: Moral panic hits the mainstream. Rawiri Taonui in Crown's authority crux of water claim has a useful analysis of the issue in light of international legal precedents regarding indigenous water rights and notes that neither the Maori Council or Iwi leaders can claim a complete mandate from Maori.
