Brown's chances tied to his home turf

Len Brown speaking at community meeting in Otara. Photo / Martin Sykes.

Manukau mayor needs to mobilise typically apathetic voting bloc for genuine shot at heading Super City

Len Brown's dream of becoming the first mayor of the Super City largely rests on poor voters in South Auckland who tend not to vote.

The Manukau Mayor is tied with Auckland City Mayor John Banks in the lead for the mayoralty, but details of the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey reveal worrying signs for the Brown camp.

DigiPoll project manager Nandan Modak said lower income earners were favouring Mr Brown and high earners Mr Banks. The vote for the $60,000 to $80,000 segment was neck-and-neck, he said.

"The poll shows that voters' participation will have huge influence on the results. Voter apathy in any particular group or region can tilt the result either way," Mr Modak said.

Labour leader Phil Goff and former Governor-General Dame Cath Tizard have both sounded a cautionary note to Mr Brown about voter antipathy and the need for the left to get its vote out. Said Mr Goff: "If there is a low turnout, traditionally the turnout will come from the most affluent and conservative sections of the community."

At the 2007 local body elections, just 38.2 per cent of people voted in South Auckland. In Otara, where Mr Brown once served on the local community board, the vote was 32.5 per cent.

The importance of the South Auckland vote to Mr Brown was underpinned by poll results showing that Mr Banks leads Mr Brown in five of the six other council areas, except Papakura, where it is a dead heat.

Auckland City is Mr Banks' stronghold, where he holds a 12.6 per cent lead over Mr Brown. He also has a handy lead on the North Shore, where Mayor Andrew Williams, also standing for the mayoralty, has just 3.8 per cent support.

There are some encouraging signs for Mr Brown. He holds a 6-point lead over Mr Banks among the largest block of voters, those aged 40 and older. Young voters, who probably do not recall Mr Banks' extreme comments from his parliamentary and talkback days, warm to the new "transmogrified" Banksie.

In the gender stakes, it is not surprising that Mr Banks is more popular with men and Mr Brown more popular with women. Mr Brown has joined forces with the National Council of Women to protect the suffrage centenary memorial at its current site in central Auckland.

Mr Banks has not said if he supports the women's group or Auckland's arts fraternity, which is pushing to resite the memorial to open up a view from Lorne St to the $113 million Auckland Art Gallery upgrade in Kitchener St.

The poll showed that 55.2 per cent of people intending to vote were happy with the choice of mayoral candidates. Nearly a third of voters were not happy.

Plans for Rugby World Cup "Party Central" at Queens Wharf found favour with 59.6 per cent of voters. Just 27 per cent were opposed.

But when asked if they would go to Queens Wharf to watch a game, just 38.4 per cent of voters said they would likely do so. The no-shows reached 58.7 per cent.