Brash will warn off challengers at Orewa

Don Brash will use tomorrow's Orewa speech to restate his intention to lead National into the next election.

He hopes to dampen speculation that he will be rolled before it and to dispel any doubts that he no longer wants the job.

Dr Brash was himself equivocal about whether he would remain the leader after the election and has since said he expected to be ousted after losing it.

He subsequently confirmed he wanted to retain the leadership, but speculation continues that he will lose it further down the track.

Senior National MPs are rallying round him and are denying that the issue is live, although privately at least some concede Dr Brash is "on notice".

The leadership references in the speech will also act as a warning to any plotters within the caucus.

National believes it needs to spend the next three years convincing voters it is the "responsible" alternative government.

It thinks the growing focus on the economic downturn will play to Dr Brash's strengths, helping the former Reserve Bank governor to build his authority as he displays his economic credentials.

Dr Brash said last week that the economy would dominate the speech, although it would be "big picture" and cover a range of issues.

National has been reluctant to build expectations about the speech, stressing it is too early in the electoral cycle to include new policy ideas.

Dr Brash's first two Orewa speeches as leader - on race relations and then welfare - generated huge interest, giving him a significant platform but also creating high expectations.

Dr Brash is likely to focus on the impact "over-spending" is having on the economic slowdown, particularly Government spending.

He will use health as an example and claim it has an excessively large bureaucracy and severe productivity problems.

A poll out yesterday meanwhile showed National ahead of Labour by a slim margin.

The Roy Morgan International poll put support for National on 40.5 per cent with Labour on 39 per cent. The Greens recorded 8.5pc and NZ First 4.5pc.


- Additional reporting NZPA