Brash u-turn on fighting 2008 election

Don Brash

Defeated National leader Don Brash was talking of fighting the 2008 election even as he conceded.

Some commentators are predicting he will step down before then or be pushed in a coup but Dr Brash put on a brave face at a media conference soon after the final election result was issued on Saturday.

He pointed out that he and deputy Gerry Brownlee were re-elected unopposed at National's first post-election caucus.

Dr Brash, 65, has indicated he would step down if defeated this election, but conceded he had changed his mind because of urgings from his "senior caucus colleagues" to stay on as leader.

Dr Brash has resurrected the party's fortunes after its disastrous performance in 2002, delivering nearly double the party vote and adding 23 new MPs.

"I can see myself fighting the next election, certainly," he said.

But Auckland University political scientist Raymond Miller believes it is unlikely he will lead National into the 2008 election. His pick is a combination of John Key as leader and Katherine Rich as his deputy.

Dr Miller said National was rebuilding and Dr Brash would not quite fit the profile of the sort of party they would like to be in three years' time.

Age would also be against him - he would be 68 - and there were obvious leadership alternatives, unlike Labour.

"John Key won't be keen to move too early. For one thing, he probably will value the extra experience. National three years from now will be even more desperate to win, and they will want to have a strong leader who is perhaps less prone to mistakes in the way that Brash was."

Mr Key as leader and Ms Rich as deputy would give National a North Island-South Island split, a gender split and a big city-smaller town split.

National had to win back female voters, Dr Miller said. It had suffered badly with women backing Labour.

Asked on Saturday if his new caucus line-up made him feel uneasy, Dr Brash said he was delighted.

"It's a fantastic line-up and I'm delighted there are many members of that caucus who would make excellent leaders of the National Party.

"That's a strength of the National Party. I don't expect to be leader of the National Party in 30 years' time."

Caretaker Prime Minister Helen Clark said yesterday that Dr Brash's plan to stay on despite losing was "consistent with the flip-flops he's become known for".