Brash takes big tumble in poll slump

National has slumped in popularity to 30.4 per cent, giving Labour a 20 point lead on 50.1 per cent in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey.

Labour would have the numbers to govern alone if an election result reflected the poll figures.

And the gulf between National leader Don Brash and Helen Clark has widened to a chasm.

The Prime Minister gained 57.8 per cent support as preferred Prime Minister, leaving Dr Brash in the dust with 20.3 per cent.

National's rating went above Labour's after Dr Brash's Orewa speech on racial separatism in late January.

The party held the lead for five months until a decline in the second half of the year.

Today, National is polling six points higher than it was in January before the speech, but the almost 20 point gap between the two major parties is virtually what it was then.

The results would give Labour 62 seats in a 120-seat Parliament - assuming New Zealand First, United Future, the Maori Party and the Progressives held constituency seats, the Greens polled more than 5 per cent and Act did not win an electorate seat or poll higher than 5 per cent.

Dr Brash said last night he took responsibility for the poor poll results - "I am the leader and have to take responsibility for them."

But he said the solace he took was that the poll indicated volatility and fluctuation.

And he is still talking up his prospects of winning.

"I intend to win the next election and everything that I do over the next four, five six, seven, eight months, however long it is, will be focused on exactly that."

The poll was taken soon after Helen Clark presided over a buoyant Labour Party conference where she announced a constitutional inquiry, the Foreshore and Seabed Bill was passed, unemployment reached a record low and negotiations for a free-trade deal with China were announced.

But it was also conducted after the John Tamihere affair and in the midst of allegations about SIS impropriety.

Commenting from Laos last night, Helen Clark said the trend was "very encouraging".

"The Government has had a number of difficult issues to work through but has addressed them with resolve.

"Significant economic growth and a huge reduction in unemployment have clearly lifted confidence."

National scored 38.9 per cent among decided voters in September's poll (36 per cent of all those polled), and much of its 8.5 point loss appears to have gone to Labour.

Labour's 50.1 per cent is a six-point increase on the 44.1 per cent of decided voters from the last poll (40.8 per cent of all those polled).

New Zealand First leads the smaller parties, on 5.7 per cent.

The Greens had 5.4 per cent, Act 2.5, United Future 2.3, the Maori Party 1.9 and Progressives 0.3.

On those figures, Act would not have any MPs in the next Parliament unless it won a constituency seat.

Dr Brash's swings in personal rating as preferred Prime Minister have mirrored trends in the party's fortunes.

He was less than 10 per cent after ousting Bill English late last year, then rocketed to around 30 per cent after the Orewa speech. But has been unable to sustain that.

He puts this down to the time he has put into touring the provinces which, he claims, has reduced his national news profile.

The poll suggests that Dr Brash's decision to "keep his powder dry" until closer to the election has been costly to the party.

He has effectively recognised the blunder in not front-footing major issues since the July announcement on law and order but changing tack.

This week the party announced its policy to support the Cullen superannuation fund and will foreshadow tax policy in a speech next week.

The poll of 1000 voters was conducted between November 19 and 27 and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

The undecided percentage for the party vote was 12.6 per cent and for Prime Minister, 23.4 per cent.