Brash 'lacks skills of political leader'

Don Brash

When Don Brash rolled Bill English for the National Party leadership in 2003, it was described as "the most bunglingly, vandalously conducted" coup in political memory.

One could say it was a fitting start. Despite taking National from the verge of oblivion to the verge of government, Brash can't seem to shift the focus from his blunders, gaffes and slip-ups.

His response to Thursday's Budget - arguably, with its lack of tax cuts, a gift for National's strategists - was typical. A decent, scripted performance, but unconvincing when thinking on his feet - straight from the Brash "template", said Victoria University political scientist Dr Jon Johansson.

His speech in Parliament contained "rare flashes of humour", Johansson said, including the big line in National's latest billboard campaign: "Labour now accepts there's a place for tax cuts. It's called Australia." But in a contested environment, debating Finance Minister Michael Cullen on TVNZ's Close Up that night, he was far less effective.

And at a time when he should have attacked the Government, Brash was again forced to defend himself against leadership speculation, saying: "I sense no mood in the caucus at all for change."

In fact, three recent polls show National within a point of Labour, and in last weekend's 3 News-TNS poll, he scored 18 per cent in the preferred prime minister stakes - respectable for an opposition leader.

So why can't the former Reserve Bank governor get any respect?

"Dr Brash lacks many of the mundane but very necessary skills of a political leader," said Johansson, who specialises in political leadership.

Brash's strengths were his reputation for integrity and his plain-speaking manner. But his diffidence in the debating chamber meant he struggled to inspire his colleagues, and he lacked the natural political instinct and command of policy boasted by Helen Clark.

"He just doesn't have the mental dexterity to think on his feet and doesn't have the political instincts to know how to shut down an issue," said Johansson.

Others insist Brash has just been bashed by a hostile media, and that his image as more honest than the typical politician still resonates outside the capital's political beltway.

"He must be doing something right because they're still in a very strong position," said Brash's official biographer, Paul Goldsmith.

Brash had repeatedly forced the Government to debate his agenda, most notably on tax cuts and race relations.

"The key to Brash is that he has tended to operate in cycles," said Goldsmith, who stood as a National candidate at the last election.

Brash's popularity peaked around big hits like the annual Orewa speeches, he said, but in the troughs of low publicity, leadership rumblings got louder.

Some analysts have blamed Brash's media minders for becalming Hurricane Brash, but insiders believe his own intractability and resistance to coaching has been to blame. "He's got his own view of how to do things and can be difficult to change in some respects," a senior National source said.

Goldsmith said the fact that Brash did not fit the "preconceived idea of what a politician should be" had sometimes held him back.

"He's not an artful dodger. He ... tends to want to defend himself against criticisms where a traditional politician would bat it away, so he gets drawn into issues more than he needs to."

Under Brash, National had run a "very leader-centric operation", Johansson said. "They've been very aware of what his strengths and weaknesses are, hence their preference for set-piece rhetoric where Dr Brash has full control, [like] the Orewa platform."

While the leadership speculation has refused to die, MPs and party sources contacted by the Herald on Sunday over the past fortnight insisted there was no real appetite within the party for a change at the top - at least for now.

"It will all depend on the polls," said one well-placed party source.

If National dropped to 5 per cent or more behind Labour and stayed there for a month or so - long enough that the gap looked permanent - coup talk could boil over, the source said.

But even so, the order of succession is far from clear. Finance spokesman John Key is believed to be the caucus front-runner, but former leader Bill English and deputy Gerry Brownlee have their supporters too.

None of them has the numbers, but if the caucus panicked, Key would be the most likely recipient of floating support.

Brash has presided over big increases in party membership and donations - from $529,000 at the 2002 election, to $1.88 million last year- and there's no guarantee funding would stick around if he left.

Goldsmith said it was possible Brash could lead the party into the next election, provided he could engineer another two or three big hits on Labour.

"It really comes down to how hard he wants to fight for it. It's there for him to retain and from what I can see, he still has the passion," he said.

"Looking back over his life he has been a doughty fighter. Stubborn. Once he's started something, he's been pretty determined to keep going."