Brain drain revealed as 'exchange'

By VERNON SMALL deputy political editor

The popular belief that New Zealand has suffered from a long-term "brain-drain" is wrong, say Treasury researchers.

Instead, New Zealand has experienced a "brain exchange" with the rest of the world in the past 40 years, with the skill level of arrivals at least matching those leaving.



About half all migrants to the rest of the world were in the high-skilled category, with a similar or higher proportion of skilled migrants coming here.

The research, by Treasury deputy secretary Peter Bushnell and policy analyst Wai Kin Choy, was undertaken to see if greater integration under the 1983 Closer Economic Relations trade deal with Australia had tempted skilled migrants across the Tasman.

Their findings were released yesterday.

The researchers said migrants to the rest of the world (including Australia) were in general more skilled than the remaining population.

About half those leaving New Zealand since 1992 were classified as high-skilled, compared with 37 per cent of the general population.

But the profile of migrants to Australia was different.

While 400,000 New Zealanders had crossed the Tasman, their mix of skills matched the general population.

Wai Kin Choy said the overall picture was one of a "brain exchange and numbers exchange" with the rest of the world.

Between New Zealand and Australia there was the "same exchange but westward drift."

The key influence on transtasman migration was economic performance and the ease of getting a job.

While incoming migrants were at least as skilled on paper as those leaving, a typical immigrant was likely to have a lower income and a lower chance of being employed than a New Zealand citizen.

This tended to diminish the longer they stayed here.

The skill level of those leaving since 1992 was stable, but the trend was for arrivals to be more skilled.

The data on skills were somewhat unreliable because only half of migrants specified occupations on the official forms.

Mr Bushnell said he was surprised by the lack of evidence of a brain-drain, because it did not tally with the popular view.

The largest net outflows were in 1978 (30,420) and 1979 (31,907), while the largest net inflows were in 1974 (29,679) and 1996 (28,697).

Both arrivals and departures were increasing over time but were volatile.

Over the past 20 years half of all those leaving went to Australia.

Emigration was a long-term trend, with 484,000 New Zealanders leaving over the past 47 years.

They had been replaced by 81,000 Australians and 676,000 people from other countries, for a net gain of 273,000.