Picture this - a society of uneducated, unemployed, unsocial and increasingly violent men. This possibility is all too real, according to some in the education sector. And as the gap between girls' and boys' achievement continues to grow, they are warning it could have dire effects on society.
Boys' educationalists like Dr Paul Baker, of Waitaki Boys High School, and education consultant Joseph Driessen believe boys' education is on a slippery slope; that without research into the issues and ways to put it right, society could pay dearly.
Baker's speech to the conference on boys' education, Challenging Boys, at Massey University did not pull any punches.
"New Zealand's institutional response to the gap has been one of denial, delay and trivialisation," he said. Boys were getting a raw deal.
Others like Celia Lashlie say societal and academic issues need to be addressed if the problem is to be fixed.
But why has the boys' achievement issue even been raised? Haven't we spent the past few decades making sure that girls have equal access to education?
Yes, says Baker, who was on a governmental boys' education reference group - but maybe it has gone too far.
Many in the ministry of education are stuck fighting the "girls can do anything" battle, he says. "There is a huge reluctance in the ministry to accept that emphasis needs now to be more on boys."
This is needed because the gender gap is widening, particularly at the senior level of secondary school and at tertiary level.
"It has huge ramifications for society which no one has started to address."
If the trend continues for 10 years, two-thirds of tertiary students could be female, Baker says. And when the next recession hits there could be a phenomenon of semi-educated, semi-socialised, unemployed young males.
If they are not going to tertiary education then where are they going?
Baker assumed they were going into trades. But there is a shortage of skilled tradespeople and no evidence of huge growth in trades.
"Are they going into careers with a secure future as opposed to jobs that pay quite well but have no security?"
Technology and physical education are prime examples. Boys could do the practical aspects of both, but often failed the standard because they could not write about what they had done as well as girls.
"In phys ed, girls excel in health and physiology, boys at the physical; in technology girls excel in design, the boys in creation."
This has led to a gender gap of 40 per cent in some National Certificate of Educational Achievement standards, Baker says. "Some boys have become disillusioned by subjects they wanted to do most, like technology or phys ed."
Baker believes it is time to look at those standards to see if they are "boy friendly".
External achievement standard results show the gap spans all subjects but is problematic only in languages, English and arts and technology.
At each level, maths, science and social science have gaps of only 1-3 per cent, yet account for two-thirds of external results.
Of 296 external standards with more than 200 entries, girls outperform boys in 258, mainly in culture or performing arts, literacy, human biology and health. In technology, six standards, all with large and gender balanced enrolments, have gender gaps ranging from 22 to 43 points.
Baker says no matter the subject, one gender will always do better than the other - but in some, the gap is more extreme.
The problem did not come about because of the NCEA. It was there, in a small way, in 1970.
But between 1990 and 1993 that long-standing small gap became a large one. It has increased in every subject except French.
But it has increased the least in subjects where boys traditionally do well, especially physics, economics and accounting.
Five years into the NCEA system in level 1 the gender gap (measured as pass rate) was stable at 10-12 per cent in favour of girls.
In everyday terms, it means for every six girls who pass only five boys do.
The gap is growing at level 2 and 3, but you must look at pupils' achievement alongside the retention issue: boys leave school earlier.
Last year, males accounted for 48 per cent of the year 12 roll and achieved only 44 per cent of level 2 passes. They comprised 47 per cent of the year 13 roll, and had just 41 per cent of passes.
At excellence level the gap is even greater. In 2005 girls gained 75 per cent more excellence passes at level 1, 57 per cent at level 2 and 50 per cent more outstanding scholarships.
Baker says questions about the implications of increasing numbers of women in the highest paid positions needed to be asked.
"I'm not saying it's wrong to have women dominating professions that were once dominated by men ... I'm saying warning, warning."
So what makes education more boy-friendly?
The key is good relationships, he says. "If boys feel they are valued, recognised, feel secure, have ownership over decisions, know their place in the system, know what the system is, then they will respect the system.
"If you get things right with boys then they are fantastic to work with. They are uncomplicated, open and admit when they do something wrong."
But to get it right takes a lot of input, positivity and encouragement.
"Most boys respond well to a good matey, sometimes physical, approach."
It does not matter whether teachers are male or female. They just need to be enthusiastic about the subject.
In the classroom, boys respond well to challenges - healthy competition with goals and targets. "That's not to say boys are unimaginative or uncreative; just a considerable number are lacking direction. They need a lot of step-by-step instructions."
Baker is calling for the Ministry of Education to establish a substantial review of the curriculum, learning and assessment. "If there is still a gender gap then so be it." FOR co-educational schools, the challenge is even greater. "Maybe the only solution is single-sex classes," says Baker, though some co-ed schools do very well for boys.
"When schools have substantial gender gaps there is something wrong with the learning culture of boys in those schools. They associate learning, studying and homework - all academic success - with girls. That is a total cop-out. It is not an excuse for male underachievement."
Education consultant Joseph Driessen, who specialises in boys' education, says boys need a sense that learning is a masculine activity.
Girls are surrounded by positive role models from an early age, but many boys are not.
"They live in a vacuum. They are much less certain of who they are, have so few examples to follow of masculinity."
Boys also hold girls in high esteem. "The movement that girls can do anything means girls feel they belong in society and have lots of opportunities. Unfortunately, that has been accompanied by a movement discrediting men."
Pupils' self-belief is the driving force of their achievement, Driessen says.
"Boys' self-belief is shaky because society keeps putting them down. I'm not saying stop urging girls on, but stop putting boys down. We need to realise our boys are just as vulnerable as girls and need our support."
Like Baker, Driessen has concerns about where boys will end up.
"We will pay for that enormously. We are paying already with youth unemployment ... increasing numbers in prisons, high suicide rates. It will have a severe impact on society."
Driessen agrees the top level of governance in education is continuing to deny the problem.
"I'm very sad at the lack of leadership at the top government level. They are insisting on perpetrating a social imbalance which is gradually becoming a crisis."
He thinks the situation is rapidly coming to a point where it will be hard to reverse but a little affirmative action and positivity for boys will go a long way. All it will take is adding balance to learning and boys will be more switched on.
Schools, while waiting for some help from above, were starting to look at the issue with some success.
Initiatives such as introducing more male guest speakers, getting fathers on boards and becoming involved in school activities and having posters featuring positive images of boys, are just some of the ways boys can be encouraged further.
Celia Lashlie, author of He'll Be OK, agrees boys need boundaries, but is cautious about the dire picture Baker paints.
While Baker advocates an academic response to the problem, Lashlie says any response needs to be across society.
"It's very valid, but it's not an answer by itself. You are not going to address the issues Paul raised without addressing the social issues."
There were definite concerns about suggestions of feminisation of the curriculum and school environment. "It has driven a lot of men out of teaching for fear of being labelled a paedophile. It's an unsafe environment for many men which has made it less attractive."
She says society has drifted towards the automatic assumption that boys' behaviour is bad and girls' behaviour is good.
"The reality isn't whether it's bad or not; it is simply boys. Women try to control that behaviour as being naughty. It's not; it's just how they are. We need to accommodate it, enjoy it."
In her visits to boys' schools she found the environment very affirming of boys being boys. "They're incredibly positive, accommodating of boys physically and not stressed about it."
They were affirming of good men and raised the bar of what was expected a good man was. Lashlie says women also need to be brave enough not to get defensive and open the door to the possibility that "our view is not necessarily the only view".
"We need to start enjoying boys, laughing at them, laughing with them."
University of Auckland dean of education Dr John Langley says there are three schools of thought on the issue of boys' and young men's achievement, none of which has been proven.
One is the role model theory: how boys often grow up without males in their life at home or at school.
Second is the feminisation of education theory: because education is driven by females at all levels it manifests itself in a system more suited to girls.
Finally is the "it's not cool to be a bloke any more" theory: boys and young men are not sure about who they are, and are a bit confused.
Education minister Steve Maharey has called for more information and asked what schools are doing to improve the situation.
He told the PPTA annual conference the Government had rejected a call for it to teach boys and girls differently.
"The Government is determined to lift boys' achievement, and the way to do this is to continue our focus on effective teaching for all students." A one-size-fits-all approach isn't the answer to dealing with differences in achievement between boys and girls, any more than it's the answer to dealing with achievement gaps between ethnic groups.
"This doesn't mean we shouldn't debate issues around boys' achievement. It means we need to understand that most boys are doing well, while some boys are not and ensure extra help is reaching those who need it."
At last week's boys' education conference, he said quality teaching would make the biggest difference in efforts to lift boys' achievement.
"Whether boys are in a co-ed or single-sex school setting, quality teaching is where we can make the biggest difference to their achievement."
- OTAGO DAILY TIMES
Boys - the classroom timebomb
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