"We believe a recycling truck has collected the bin the following morning and Mr Bindner died at some point in the recycling process.
"At this point we consider Mr Bindner's death to likely be a tragic accident, however we are still continuing our investigation and viewing extensive CCTV footage to try and confirm Mr Bindner's final movements since he was last sighted."
The homeless father of three was last seen alive at Te Awamutu McDonald's at 11.04pm on Tuesday 21 June.
"While we believe he likely sought shelter in a waste bin in the early hours of that Tuesday morning we would still like to hear from anyone who may have seen him around or after 11.04pm that night."
Police said once their investigation was finished they would likely refer the case to the Coroner.
"Our sympathies go out to Mr Bindner's family at this time. Police have provided support to the driver of the recycling truck."