Blumsky vote chances sliding down the stairwell

Mark Blumsky's hopes of wrenching Wellington Central from Marian Hobbs may have tumbled down the stairwell with him that early morning in July.

Or maybe they took a fall a couple of days later when he agreed to be photographed, complete with black eyes, for the front page of Wellington's daily newspaper.

How the National Party must have groaned, despite optimistically trying for the close-to-home boost to their law and order crusade.

Having lured a high-profile, and some say popular, former city mayor from United Future just last year, National held high hopes for picking up the country's third-wealthiest electorate from Labour.

Pity that Wellington Central may also be the most politically aware.

Filled with civil servants who work for the Government and in Parliament, there is not a lot about politics, tactics and strategic voting this lot doesn't know.

It must also be one of the few electorates - another is Epsom - where weblogs are burdened with the witty one-liners and foot-in-mouth utterances from candidates moments after every campaign meeting.

It's one where, Cabinet minister Hobbs sighs, she has to go to dozens of electorate and cottage meetings and goodness knows how many soapbox corner encounters for voters who actually want to hear about politics.

By contrast, colleague Annette King has only two meetings in Rongotai to attend, says Ms Hobbs.

To be fair to Mr Blumsky, it's not clear what happened to him as he walked a few blocks from a hip downtown bar to his inner-city apartment.

He was found hours later, bloodied and bruised, at the bottom of a stairwell leading to his fourth-floor home.

Mr Blumsky remains adamant he was assaulted. He says he wasn't drunk, but there were witnesses who told television they helped National's under-the-weather candidate home that morning. Police say it may never be known what happened.

What really matters for Mr Blumsky is what the voters of Wellington Central think (some think he's still mayor, which doesn't say a lot for his replacement and second-termer Kerry Prendergast) although on current polling he should be elected from National's list.

And no matter how unfair, the city's chattering classes speculate he maybe just had a bit too much to drink, slipped, fell over, can't remember what happened, whatever ... then foolishly talked about it.

His other problem is that Wellingtonians like Marian Hobbs.

A Fairfax poll published on Saturday reflects that popularity, giving the MP a strong 16-point lead over the challenger, although one in five voters remained undecided.

It also helps Ms Hobbs that surveys favour Labour over National in the party vote, and particularly Labour's targeted tax relief rather than National's across the board tax cuts.

She commands a healthy 4000-plus majority, more than doubling last election the majority she gained in 1999 when she took the seat from Act leader Richard Prebble.

As well as living in a city full of state workers who fear the the axe if National wins, the MP also has a sizeable student population in the electorate - useful after Labour's pledge to wipe interest on student loans.

And, no stranger to the media spotlight herself after a probe into whether she was entitled to a ministerial housing allowance, she has wisely held back from appearing holier than thou over Mr Blumsky's early morning downfall.

That paid off last week, when in the spirit of MMP a custard pie-throwing heckler who targeted and struck the MP was chased by Mr Blumsky's campaign manager and long-time National stalwart, blogger David Farrar.