The tobacco industry's predictions of a black market fostered by tax rises seem to have been unfulfilled, apart from one significant seizure, official papers indicate.
The Customs Service says "no significant seizures of cigarettes" were made in the past three years.
This is despite industry assertions that tightening the screws on tobacco control will foster an illicit market.
The industry has been issuing these warnings about policies such as tax increases and plain packaging since the Maori affairs select committee tobacco inquiry in 2010, at which time British American Tobacco released a report it had commissioned, "Out of the Shadows", on New Zealand's illicit tobacco market.
Customs says in a summary of 2010, obtained by the Herald under the Official Information Act, that an increase in tobacco seizures, including illicitly grown local leaf, was identified as a possibility because of the tax rises that began that year, "... however despite the increases in excise duty this has not been the case".