By RUTH BERRY, political reporter
Victory seems a foregone conclusion for Tariana Turia in Saturday's Te Tai Hauauru byelection, but more than a simple win is riding on the outcome.
Saturday has also been chosen as the Maori Party's official launch day and the date of its first national hui.
For the MP who left the Labour Party over its handling of the foreshore issue, declaring "the next hikoi will be the one to the ballot box", the extent of voter turn-out will be critical.
Also crucial will be the size of the founding hui and the message it sends.
Dissatisfaction among Maori voters with Labour has been huge, but the challenge for the Maori Party is to harness that discontent to create longer-term electoral change.
Competing against four independents and Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party candidate Dun Mihaka, Mrs Turia can expect a big chunk of the vote this weekend.
But Labour has denied her a real battle - and all the publicity that would have entailed - so voter complacency will be a problem for the new party.
It needs a solid result from the byelection to show that Mrs Turia, as a co-leader, commands a significant personal following.
Byelection campaign manager Matt McCarten said nearly 400 canvassers were expected to have visited more than 80 per cent of the 17,000 households with enrolled voters.
Initial door knocks produced some bad news. About a quarter of people had moved without re-registering, and others did not know the byelection date.
Mrs Turia is worried that cold weather could also be a turn-off. She had meetings in Taumaranui and Ohakune with about 15 people at each. But if those meetings were a low point she has had many highs. She says has spoken to about 3700 people in the past six weeks.
"We do want people to get out and vote. It's a very significant election because it's our new beginnings."
Mrs Turia had hoped to launch the Maori Party at Ratana Pa, but while visitors will be staying there, headquarters will be the Memorial Hall in Wanganui.
The launch will be on Saturday night, followed by the hui on Sunday.
The party's rules and constitution are expected to be approved at the hui, but plans for a draft policy manifesto have been abandoned.
Instead, says co-leader Pita Sharples, a broad policy framework, rather than specific proposals, will be unveiled.
A final manifesto is likely to be drawn up around Christmas, Mrs Turia says.
Money remains a problem. Dr Sharples said some early pledges had not been honoured, and others came with unacceptable strings attached, including a couple calling for a party name change.
Individuals are paying for phone calls and airfares.
Lack of money has stymied previous attempts to get similar parties off the ground.
Candidate selection will be an important part of its success or failure. Mrs Turia says this will be left in the hands of electorates although the party executive will rank the list.
Candidates for the Maori seats are expected to be chosen by around Christmas.
Competition has already started in Te Tai Tokerau, where Mere Mangu and Hone Harawira are vying for selection.
Mr Harawira wants the job, but he is remaining officially coy, saying it is for the people to decide.
Ms Mangu, a community activist who polled an impressive 2532 votes as an independent in the seat in 2002, is less guarded, saying she is "absolutely" in the race.
Whether Mrs Turia holds Te Tai Hauauru after the next election may partly depend on how hard Labour fights for it.
Dr Sharples, who says he is most likely to stand against Cabinet minister John Tamihere in Tamaki Makaurau, hints at a future relationship between the parties, and suggests Labour needs to consider this.
"We are not too different in our philosophies on some things ... They will be fools to treat us as the enemy."
Labour may have a different view, although it will not want to inflame the animosity engendered by the foreshore debate.
The electorate
Te Tai Hauauru is a Maori electorate stretching from Putaruru and Tokoroa in the north to Porirua in the south.
It has nearly 26,000 voters on its roll. Of these, 58 per cent voted in 2002.
Tariana Turia is the incumbent. She had a 10,002-vote majority in 2002.
Advance voting has started. Enrolments close on Friday.
Byelection information can be obtained by calling 0800 367-656.
Herald Feature: Maori issues
Related information and links
Big win vital for Maori Party
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