Big money doubts as $46b transport plans unveiled

Transport goals to protect the country's commercial capital from paralysis over 30 years will be put to Aucklanders tomorrow amid deep funding uncertainty.

The final draft of the Auckland Regional Transport Strategy - which proposes spending $46 billion on public transport, roads and walking and cycling between now and 2040 - will be presented at Britomart for two months of consultations.

But the Auckland Regional Transport Committee admits considerable funding uncertainty after officials produced a "best guess" of $33 billion to $47 billion expected from Government and local sources.

The committee proposes about $21.5 billion to boost public transport and "active modes" such as walking and cycling, towards a more resilient network able to withstand potentially savage fuel price rises and curbs on greenhouse gases.

Although roads would still chew through more than $24 billion of investment, the strategy emphasises better uses of existing tarmac in allowing for just nine per cent more lane kilometres to be built - with an emphasis on freight routes.

But there is no specific provision for the $2.3 billion highway between Puhoi and Wellsford the Government wants built as a road of national significance, although the strategy refers in general terms to ensuring roading connections to neighbouring regions "where necessary to contribute to economic development, network resilience and safety outcomes".

The direction-setting document says it is not possible to double the region's roading capacity to cope with the travel needs of more than two million Aucklanders after 2040.

It proposes an almost sixfold increase in rail services, and just under twice the existing availability of buses and ferries.

That would more than double public transport trips by each Aucklander from an average of 43 in 2006 to 109 by 2040.

Even so, the preferred strategic option would miss a target of increasing public transport's share of all trips from 3.2 per cent to more than 7 per cent.

Aucklanders would also emit 6.1kg of greenhouse gases a day from transport by 2040, against a national requirement to halve consumption to 2.6kg.

Neither could motorists expect to move any faster on the region's roads, on which the average speed has declined from 44km/h to 41km/h in three years.

The document notes the Transport Agency has allocated 53 per cent of the national land transport budget to state highways over the next three years, and just 19 per cent to public transport.

But it says spending by Auckland households of an average of 4.12 per cent of their budgets on transport fuel exceeds a threshold above which international research indicates national economies tend to suffer, and proposes working with the Government to develop more initiatives for reducing the region's greenhouse gases to acceptable levels.

MOVING FORWARD

Big public transport items include:

* Rail electrification: $1.2 billion
* Central Auckland rail tunnel: $1.5 billion
* Airport rail links: $1.1 billion
* Avondale-Onehunga rail link: $1 billion
* Northern busway extension to Orewa: $400 million
* Bus priority links Henderson-Albany and Panmure-Botany-Manukau centre (figures unavailable)

Extra roading includes:

* Completing the western ring route: about $2 billion
* Auckland-Manukau Eastern Transport Initiative: $1.3 billion
* Improved airport links: $400 million

Investigations are also proposed for:
* A third Waitemata Harbour crossing.
* A strategic road link to improve freight movements between East Tamaki and the western ring route.

ON THE WEB
www.arc.govt.nz/rlts (tomorrow)