KEY POINTS:
Conditions are looking to be pretty windy this weekend as we head into our first weekend of October. Many of you will remember October as being an incredibly stormy month and this year is no different - however so far it's been muffled somewhat by a
large high over northern New Zealand.
But it's that high that will create big gales off and on over the next several days with Saturday seeing the strongest winds blasting across the upper South Island and lower North Island - with the worst roughly between Kaikoura and Palmerston North.
Wellington should get a pounding with gales possibly over sustained at over 100km/h in exposed places - and possibly gusting to 150km/h on some of the exposed hilltops or at Castlepoint.
Those strong winds will head north, bumping up temperatures into the mid 20s, (maybe late 20s for isolated inland pockets) across the nations entire east coast.
Aucklanders will also see a windy weekend but it will pale in comparison to other regions further south. Winds will pick up during Saturday and become a little gusty but on Sunday the air pressure will even out and so the strongest winds will ease.
A lot of people ask me about wind and highs and lows - well basically highs are like air pressure mountains and lows are like air pressure valleys. Now imagine them as a topographical map - so where the lines are closer together that means the terrain is steeper - well it's exactly the same with wind. When the lines (isobars) are packed together that means the air pressure gradient is steeper - so the winds pick up speed.
The centre of a big low is like the bottom of deep valley - the hard part is getting down in to it - so that's why the winds are strong around a low, but in the centre it's flat and calm. Hope that explanation helps for those who wanted to know.
Anyway - those isobars that will be crammed over central New Zealand on Saturday will space apart on Sunday bringing a break from the strong winds for most of usnd. But make the most of it - while Sunday looks calm, Monday definitely does not. A high that is roughly twice as wide as Australia will push against a massive area of low pressure in the Tasman Sea. The first 3 days of next week look incredibly stormy at this stage and we may well see our first wind damage so far this Spring - but we'll have a better idea on Sunday at the Weather Watch Centre.
Rain-wise this weekend, while it's perhaps not ideal for getting out, it's also not too bad for a number of centres - but some outdoor plans may need to be cancelled or postponed.
Don't forget to go to our Weather Tracker across the weekend to find out where the latest rain bands/showers are moving and whether they'll affect you.
The high over northern New Zealand will hold most of that rain away for Auckland - and as of Friday morning when I wrote this there was only a risk of drizzle around Auckland on Saturday night and drizzle or showers on Sunday.
Western areas south of Auckland look wetter - in fact the further south you go the heavier the rain will be - and the strong the wind. Eastern areas, such as Napier, Hawkes Bay and Tauranga should have a relatively dry weekend but a few spits of rain are possible on Sunday. Eastern regions of the South Island should stay dry thanks to the Southern Alps.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Visitors to Mount Eden on a blustery October day. Photo / Martin Sykes
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.