Better news for Queen's Birthday holiday makers

Many Kiwis relate stormy weather with Queens Birthday weekend and this year looks set to be a cold and windy one for some places but I have to admit it maybe not as bad as I first thought. From the end of last week until Monday this week computer models - which spit out long range weather maps - showed what looked like a major Antarctic storm on the way. In the past 24 hours I can confirm that the computer models have had a dramatic change of mind and have eased quite a bit...this is better news for holidaymakers but not such great news for weather geeks like me who enjoy a good storm from time to time.
There are some major centres that will see low daily highs - possibly as low as 7 degrees this weekend and snow is likely to low levels in the deep south. We have an extensive Queen's Birthday weekend forecast for all regions across Zealand, independent of MetService, which is updated early morning and evening right across this week and the weekend, you'll find it by clicking here.

So why have the computer models backed off a little? Well it's all due to the high in the Tasman Sea. This anticyclone is likely to balloon out and shove our polar blast further south and further east of New Zealand. The high currently looks more dominant and more in control. So does this mean Queens Birthday weekend will be settled and sunny? Perhaps sunnier than first thought and but not settled. The low may not be as intense but I'm sure most people will consider the weather this weekend to be "nothing flash" - especially Sunday and Monday. Saturday may well be pleasant in many of our traditional eastern holiday spots.

The high in the west and the low deep in the south will bring warmer nor'westers towards the end of the week. By Saturday a front will cross the country....nothing particularly severe just the usual cold front. By Saturday night and going in to Sunday the slightly warmer northerly flow will be replaced by a cold southerly - but note that I'm no longer calling it an Antarctic southerly. Highs in places like Invercargill, Queenstown, Dunedin, Oamaru, Timaru, Ashburton, Akaroa, Christchurch, Kaikoura and Wellington will most likely be confined to the single digits on Sunday or Monday, but due to this large high to the west the air now looks unlikely to be coming off the polar caps.

Snow will fall to low levels in Southland and coastal Otago with sleet possible to sea level. In fact, snow is possible to sea level.

If you're driving this weekend you'll want to be aware of road conditions in both islands...snow to low levels in the South Island may cause a few issues and if the high doesn't grow as big as predicted then the Desert Road is likely to again be affected during Sunday and, more importantly, Monday, when holidaymakers try to return home.

I think the weekend will start off mild for most then we'll get plenty of south westerlies, colder temperatures by Sunday or Monday but drier weather in the bulk of the holiday spots. It's always hard writing long range forecasts in New Zealand... the potential for this weekend to go one way or another makes it difficult to work out an exact forecast.

Meanwhile thank you to Laura Jerome from Northland who sent us some fantastic flooding images yesterday. The Herald used one about weather in the upcoming week. See all of Laura's flood photos in our Storm Gallery. We don't think there'll be any flooding this long weekend as rainfall amounts do look relatively low thanks to that large blocking high.

Philip Duncan



Pictured above: Along the Desert Road. Photo / Sarah Ivey