Bet on Black

Wynne Gray casts an eye over the All Blacks on the eve of their departure for the fourth World Cup.

Three times the All Blacks have left New Zealand carrying varying degrees of favouritism for the World Cup.

Even after a disastrous last season, it seems the All Blacks have their best chance on this expedition to emulate their World Cup-winning predecessors of 1987.

Eight years ago there was a staleness which permeated the squad, a wearying tread which showed out in a pre-tournament tour to Argentina and then a mighty struggle to retain the Bledisloe Cup against the Wallabies.

There were selection issues with John Gallagher, Matthew Ridge and Frano Botica all gone to league, backline kingpin Grant Fox bothered by injury and coaching incompatibility after the NZRFU decided Alex Wyllie should have John Hart for company.

The pained battle ended in Dublin with the All Blacks well beaten in their 1991 semifinal.

When the All Blacks went to the last World Cup in South Africa, they went with hope and excitement in their bellies. There was a swag of young test players: Osborne, Wilson, Lomu, Ieremia, Mehrtens, Kronfeld, Dowd. They had a favourable draw, they played better than anyone expected, Lomu stunned the tournament and they only slipped in the extraordinarily dramatic extra-time final.

After the five straight defeats in annus horribilis 1998, it seems incongruous the men in black could have left yesterday as a favourite for the fourth global tournament.

However, apart from the mental meltdown in Sydney where they were put under vast pressure for the only time this year and staggered to a 7-28 loss against the Wallabies, the All Blacks have played far more consistent rugby than their southern hemisphere allies.

The anxiety will be about that Sydney shocker and the inability of the team to deal with the intensity of that test. They will get a similar examination from the England heavyweights.

If they manage to get past England in round two of pool play, the All Blacks have the sort of run home many teams would pay quids to the organisers for. Beating England should mean avoiding both the Wallabies and Springboks to set up a likely quarterfinal with Scotland, a semifinal against France - two matches of increasing difficulty but opponents the All Blacks should beat.

From there who knows, but if that schedule transpires then the All Blacks have a great show of taking the Webb Ellis Cup at the Cardiff final.

Obviously there are concerns about the All Blacks but those are less than, say, the imponderable results for the playing through champions, the Springboks. Given their record this season, injuries, disharmony and everything else, who knows how they will respond at the tournament?

At least we have some gauge on the All Blacks. Including their opening hitout against New Zealand A, they have had seven games of test-match intensity to deal with. It has been a programme which has seen results, consistent selections and allowed the side to find some patterns they want.

The training camps at Palmerston North and Taupo in the last week should have honed that planning with strategies and expanded on the gameplans the side will need to make it to the final.

The debate will be whether the layoff the All Blacks have had since the end of the Tri-Nations was too long and whether they will have another failure as they did at Stadium Australia. Can they also change their plans to suit the opposition, will they reselect at centre, halfback, wing and loose forward and will the leadership hold up?

At least the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks have been through the sort of programme they will need to endure to win the World Cup.

The Northern Hemisphere challengers have been in camp but have played few matches since the end of the Five Nations tournament.

And the All Blacks have plenty of star quality; Lomu, Cullen, Wilson, Mehrtens, Kronfeld, Maxwell, Hoeft and Oliver. Welding that class to a coherent team plan is the huge assignment for the coaching staff.

There are always tournament stumbles but productive betting is about judging percentages and on the evidence of their 1999 season, the draw and the calibre of their players, the All Blacks are a good money punt.