We've heard it before and we'll hear it ad nauseam between now and September the 23rd - the only poll that counts is the one that's counted on election day. And that's literally true.
But New Zealand opinion polls in the lead-up to an election, and we're about to be hit with a tidal wave of them, are generally pretty accurate and are largely borne out in the final result.
They will wax and wane between now and the election but in the past couple of elections there's been a bit of a trend for National's rating to be slightly overstated along with The Greens, which is why Winston Peters was miffed when he was ranked level pegging with them on 11 percent. He'll be speaking from experience given that his rating tends to come in ahead of what the polls are telling us going into the ballot box.
Peters deserves his current rating, regardless of whether you agree or disagree with what he stands for. For the past couple of weeks he's been out and about on his campaign bus, first used by him on his wildly successful 1996 campaign when he picked up 17 seats and the Deputy Prime Minister's job.
The bus is the old fashioned way of campaigning, even if Bill English cynically suggested a couple of days ago that Peters has finally found the map. It gets the 72 year old Peters into the country town halls, or in his case more often than not the RSA's, where he packs them out.