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New Zealand's baby boom has got Education Ministry officials scrambling to overhaul their projections of future school rolls.
The recent bulge in births and new projections for future birth numbers have turned an expected drop in pupil numbers over the next 18 years into a big predicted increase.
The number of births has shot up by 5000 in the past two years.
There were 63,250 births last year, the most since 1972 when 64,000 children were born.
Two years ago, education officials working from population figures, school retention patterns and projected birth and migration rates expected school rolls to drop by 35,000 pupils by 2026.
But a new report drawing on Statistics New Zealand birth estimates has sent school roll estimates skyrocketing.
Officials now expect to see 70,000 more pupils in classrooms during the next 15 years than previously predicted, mainly because of increased "fertility rates".
The figures have big ramifications for the Education Ministry in terms of teacher supply, new classrooms and schools, student allowances and funding.
Last year there were 753,200 fulltime-equivalent pupils. This was tipped to fall until 2011, then increase dramatically from 2012 when the current bulge of babies start to hit primary school.
Numbers are expected to peak in 2023 when nearly 793,000 pupils are predicted to jam classrooms.
The predictions are based on "medium" population growth rates, meaning actual increases could be higher.
The primary teachers' union, the New Zealand Educational Institute, said the Government must plan ahead to ensure it had enough teachers and that schools were properly funded.
- NZPA
