Baby-boom and bust feared

By ALAN PERROTT

New Zealand is facing an epidemic of muscle and bone diseases as the population ages, a major medical group warns.

The New Zealand Orthopaedic Association said the country was trying to ignore the huge costs that would be created by the ageing baby-boomer generation.

Within 50 years more than 1.5 million New Zealanders will be aged over 60.

In a report released this morning, the association predicts the incidence of osteoporosis will double by 2051, accompanied by an annual demand for 10,000 hip replacements and a skyrocketing number of fracture and arthritis cases.

The association's president, Professor Geoffrey Horne, said waiting lists were already unacceptably long, which showed present funding was inadequate.

But despite the obvious medical implications of a greater proportion of elderly citizens, no national strategy was in place to meet the looming burden if disease rates continued at their present levels, he said.

Demographic projections say the rise in over-60s in New Zealand will accelerate after 2011 as the wave of baby-boomers comes through.

The number of elderly is expected to grow by 215,000 between 2011 and 2021.

It will increase by a further 250,000 over the following decade.

Within 20 years, more people will be aged over 65 than under 15.

Potential health issues will also be exacerbated by longer lifespans, the rising obesity rate and fewer people taking regular exercise.

Professor Horne said more orthopaedic doctors, nurses and physiotherapists needed to be trained and more facilities built.

"Unless something is done there's likely to be a blow-out in waiting lists," he said.

Ppreventive measures such as diet and exercise should be heavily promoted to reduce the incidence of muscle and bone disease.

Professor Horne anticipated that new surgical techniques and new technologies would eventually reduce disease rates.

A spokesman for Health Minister Annette King said a taskforce was looking at future health requirements.

He said the annual intake of medical students had been raised by 40, the first increase since 1991, and last week's announcement of 500 bonded medical scholarships should keep more graduates in New Zealand.

Doctors would also have to be encouraged to train in needed specialties, he said.

Grey Power president Graham Stairmandy said if the health system was unprepared, future governments would have to contend with a highly militant mass of elderly people.

Baby-boomers might look back and consider the present group of retirees as the "lucky generation", he said.

"Those baby-boomers are going to be in trouble, but they don't seem to want to realise it."

Populations throughout the Western world are becoming increasingly aged as birth rates drop.

A report in the United States journal Orthopaedics Today says a baby-boomer turns 50 every seven seconds.

About one in five Americans is expected to be older than 65 by 2030.

Ailment Wave

* Projected NZ population in 2051: 4,806,500.

* Over 60s in 2051: 1,518,600.

* Arthritis cases in 2001: 920,000.

* Predicted cases in 2051: 1,374,000.

* Osteoporosis cases in 2001: 380,062.

* Predicted cases in 2051: 764,268.

* Hip replacements in 2001: 4911

* Predicted number in 2051: 9718.