Autumn coming, but hot weather will remain

The sun will set on summer, but the warm weather will stick around. Photo / Glenn Jeffrey

Weather experts say the heat isn't only in the air - sea temperatures are rising while autumn will see a desperate need for rain.

NIWA climate scientist James Renwick says the beginning of autumn this Monday will see the warmth stick around much longer.

Sea temperatures are now almost a degree warmer than they are usually at this time of year. In East Auckland they are sitting around 22-23 degrees celsius and closer to shore they are around 24 degrees. Air temperatures usually peak in late January with sea temperatures coming to a head about now.

Renwick recommends people get their swimmers on and head to the beach- especially where it's warmest - on the West Coast.

"Go for it - not in Wellington Harbour, but maybe in Auckland."

Air temperatures are expected to remain at normal or higher than normal with rain expected to be the same or below normal in the North Island.

Temperatures should stay between 23-25 degrees for the next ten days.

NIWA's research shows that weather conditions look much more settled than they were in January with scattered rain and cloud. Renwick says his only concern is that the next few months might be too dry. Aucklanders might want to water their gardens before they leave for the dunes.

"It's got dry again and we won't be seeing much rain again."

Recorded rain has fallen short of normal measurements. Auckland Airport has only seen 6 per cent of the usual rain at 4mm where there is usually 66mm.

Renwick says an el nino could be the explanation of the weather that much of New Zealand will see over the following months. El ninos can bring warmer weather west from the East Pacific.

"It generally brings us warmer weather and rain in areas like the Taranaki and Fiordland. We got that up until the end of January especially in the East Cape and the Wairarapa."

WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan says parts of New Zealand have had diverse experiences of summer this year.

He says while Wellington was off to a bad start Cantabrians on the coast have had the worst summer of all New Zealanders because there has been minimal rain there.

"The top-third of the country - Taupo northwards - have had a fantastic summer. Canterbury, Christchurch and Southland have had a terrible one," Duncan says.

"It's an Indian summer for Auckland and much of the North Island. And that's good news for most people but not farmers."

Fjiordland showers are expected to continue and some of the South Island have drizzle or rain into next week, according to MetService reports.

MetService forecaster Marylin Avery says the weather shows typical signs of a New Zealand summer.

"Despite the expectations for more consistent weather, thundering falls are expected on Thursday afternoon in the North Island, which should clear by Friday morning. A cold front will be coming up from the South Island to push the humidity through Auckland. The air will be much cooler than it has been in the upper North Island over the past weeks."

"This is just a ridge at the moment, and then there'll be a trough," she says.

Avery says Aucklanders can expect the fine weather to continue into next week and for cool breezes to pick up.

Renwick says the weather will be much more consistent after the thundering falls pass.