By SCOTT MacLEOD transport reporter
The road toll hit a record low at 462 last year but where to from here?
Although the road toll has been moving down from its 1973 peak of 843, safety chiefs say there is still a long way to go before the death rate matches the safest Western countries.
They are planning to slash our road toll nearly in half by 2010 - to no more than 295 deaths and 1940 injuries a year.
The big question is whether that goal is realistic. Looking at safety trends across the Tasman, it is.
In Australia, the death rate has plummeted by two-thirds since 1970, and safety planners have set themselves a 10-year target almost as ambitious as ours - despite a sudden spike in deaths last year.
There were 1818 fatalities on Australian roads last year, 51 more deaths than in 1999.
The Australians aim to slash their death rate by another 40 per cent - down from 9.5 per 100,000 people to 5.6.
In comparison, the last international study put New Zealand's death rate at 14.4 - more than twice that of the best country, Sweden, at 6.1.
Australian Transport Minister John Anderson said his goal could be met by mobilising a wide-ranging group of social agencies - such as police, schools, media and employers, as well as car-makers.
The Australian scheme is a model for the one being drawn up here. The strategy report aims to improve roads, vehicles, medical services and public transport.
But the most interesting part is technological.
The report talks of putting devices in roads and cars that will force motorists to wear seatbelts, avoid tailgating and keep to the speed limit.
Computer chips could be used to make cars corner safely. New cars may include breath-testers and refuse to start if they detect alcohol. Car computers could detect crashes and automatically alert medics.
The report says those measures would slice just 2 per cent from the road toll by 2010 because they would mostly affect new vehicles.
Much bigger improvements would come from spending money on making roads safer - which would cut deaths by up to 19 per cent.
In New Zealand, one person dies every 17 hours and another is injured every 88 minutes in road smashes, costing the country $3 billion each year.
Our strategy aims to cut that cost to $2 billion. It uses a computer model to work out what impact various measures would have on the road toll. The debate is about using tougher laws and enforcement, or spending more on roads.
The law-based plan would cost $28 million a year, but would be unpopular - not least because it suggests cutting the open-road speed limit to 90 km/h.
The road-building plan would cost more than 12 times as much at $350 million, but would be offset by some economic benefits. Straighter roads mean lower fuel bills.
A third option is a mix of the other two, and would cost $250 million.
Apart from howls of protest at lowering the speed limit, the biggest political hot-potato is who will pay. Early estimates show that the most expensive option, road building, will need a road-user-charge hike of up to 52 per cent, a vehicle licensing fee increase of $122 or fuel excise tax of 11.7c per litre - or a combination of all three.
Motorists are certain to choke on that.
The Automobile Association said that the Government should pay at least half the cost, and that more weight should be placed on education.
"No one's going to be happy about paying more," said public affairs manager Geordie Cassin.
"If the Government reaches into its pocket - preferably on a one-to-one basis - then we believe motorists will accept it."
Mr Cassin said the AA wanted more four-lane highways, median barriers and passing lanes.
On enforcement, the AA had shifted its stance and would now accept a ban on using hand-held cellphones while driving, and demerit points for speedsters photographed breaking the limit by 20 km/h or more.
Police also favour speed-camera demerit points, along with cutting the alcohol limit from 80mg to 50mg per 100ml of blood.
Police national road safety manager Superintendent Steve Fitzgerald said he hoped tougher laws would help slash the road death toll even further this year.
"If you look at enforcement options, they are the cheapest and have the greatest amount of political will attached to them," he said.
"There seems to be an energy concentrating on road safety for the first time in a focused way."
* If you have suggestions for cutting the toll, contact Scott MacLeod at NZ Herald, Box 3290, Auckland, fax (09) 373-6421 or e-mail scott_macleod@herald.co.nz
Herald Online feature: Cutting the road toll
Australia shows way to slash road fatalities
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