Audrey Young: Stumbling blocks on Helen Clark's road to UN Secretary General

While Helen Clark is a former leader, her position as head of the United Nations Development Programme is establishing her administrative credentials. Photo / Steven McNicholl

New Zealanders might not have found the campaign for a UN Security Council seat especially thrilling, but the possibility of former Prime Minister Helen Clark leading the United Nations is a common subject of speculation.

Could it happen? The answer is yes, but not easily.

Prime Minister John Key has said the country will back Clark if she puts up her hand to become the next UN Secretary General.

There is no question that she wants it, but that does not mean she will go for it.

She would not go for it without New Zealand's full backing, and New Zealand's backing of her depends on what Eastern Europe does. It is considered Eastern Europe's turn to supply the next Secretary General, a view that New Zealand accepts.

Clark's chances rest on whether Eastern Europe can come up with a consensus candidate, one acceptable to Europe, the US and Russia.

With the current crisis in relations over Ukraine, that is not a simple task.

If it can't find a consensus candidate, Clark will almost certainly seek the post and would be a front runner.

It would be pointless for her to publicly declare too early. To have done so this year could have interfered with New Zealand's campaign for a Security Council seat.

If there is a contest, candidates might still be reluctant to be first to declare because they are likely to attract comment and criticism.

Eastern Europe is being given time - and there is plenty of it, as the next term of the Secretary General begins in 2017.

In the meantime, Clark will continue what the Foreign Policy magazine termed a "stealth campaign".

None of the eight Secretary Generals has been a woman, and Clark has raised the issue in interviews.

The Western European and Others Group to which New Zealand belongs has supplied heads before, but not for 34 years, and all have been from the northern hemisphere.

Chile's President, Michelle Bachelet, is sometimes mentioned as a possibility, as is Brazil's President, Dilma Rousseff. But both were re-elected this year and would be sitting leaders.

The UN has never been headed by a former leader.

While Helen Clark is a former leader, her position as head of the United Nations Development Programme is establishing her administrative credentials.

The job also places her in a perfect position for her non-campaign; she is in constant contact with representatives and leaders whose support she would need but in a role that is not heavily politicised.

The Secretary General has been appointed in the past in a vote by the UN General Assembly on the recommendation of the Security Council - on which the five permanent members have a veto.

New Zealand will be on the council in 2016 when the decision is made, though it is hard to see that that would advantage or disadvantage any Clark candidacy.

But if Eastern Europe can find a consensus candidate, Helen Clark would have to accept that being at the right place at the right time in history isn't always enough.