A protester showing support for Ukraine outside the Russian embassy in Berlin. Photo / AP
OPINION:
A week can be a long time in geopolitics and Russia's invasion of Ukraine proves that.
The reputations of many players have been affected in the course of just a week and opportunities opened up for New Zealand.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is probably the least affected in terms of reputation. He has long been seen as an untrustworthy autocrat and has simply been reinforced as such.
Having spent the past few weeks denying that Russia would invade Ukraine, Putin declared two Ukrainian regions Donetsk and Luhansk to be independent and in need of Russian peacekeeping soldiers, something former US President Donald Trump has declared to be "genius".
But it does not get Putin off the hook. So far, he has stopped short of a full-scale invasion to take over Kyiv but it is still an invasion.
For the United States, the activity around the invasion has been the clearest example of President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken taking global leadership since taking office 13 months ago.
After the unilateral withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan and the confronting consequences facing ordinary Afghanis, Biden's credentials as a foreign policy expert withered. In this crisis, he has been much better.
Biden had a few stumbles in his early messaging but overall it has been clear.
The Americans took the unusual tactics of sharing intelligence publicly and talking up Russia's plans as it prepared for invasion, in a remote hope that Russia would back down.
The Americans vigorously pursued diplomatic solutions and threatened sanctions in the vain hope it might be a deterrent.
They acted like a properly committed member of Nato, by sending extra personnel and weapons to reinforce defences in its European Nato partners, without giving Ukraine false hope that the US would fight on its soil.
They extended their reach beyond Europe and Blinken travelled to Australia and Fiji and hooked up with Pacific leaders and Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta via video from Fiji.
The US' actions over friends and allies started meeting its rhetoric.
Within Europe and Nato, the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, was starting to look like one of the weakest links instead of one of the strongest. Germany was mocked for sending 5000 helmets to Ukraine instead of the weaponry it requested.
However, Scholz was one of the first to announce a sanction and one that will unquestionably punish Russia - the immediate suspension of the Nord Stream 2 gas project on which Russia has already spent $16 billion.
In Australia, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced sanctions but the real importance for him is the platform the issue affords him with an election soon to be announced.
Two weeks ago, two sets of text messages, between Liberal colleagues and another separate private text from coalition colleague Barnaby Joyce to a third party, portrayed Morrison as a nasty piece of work and completely untrustworthy.
In a stunning deflection, Morrison and Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton spent last week campaigning on the issue of national security, contrasting their record in standing up to bullying by China with Labor.
They were helped enormously by the CCP when the Global Times ran an article endorsing Labor leader Anthony Albanese as the better choice.
Russia has given Morrison another platform to campaign on Australia's record in "standing up to bullies".
It is a much bolder Australian Prime Minister than the humiliated one who was not only accused of lying by French president Emmanuel Macron over a cancelled submarine deal but called a "hypocrite and a liar" by Joyce, someone now serving as his Deputy Prime Minister.
The Ukraine crisis has also given Macron the chance to show some experienced leadership in Europe in the vacuum left by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
He flew to Moscow for talks with Putin. None of this will harm his re-election chances in the presidential election due to begin in April.
And this week, his French Government co-hosted with the European Union the most important gathering of foreign ministers since the Covid-19 pandemic stopped such meetings.
It was a conference of 27 EU foreign ministers along with an array of foreign ministers from countries in the Indo-Pacific, including New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta.
In only the second trip she has taken since taking the job 16 months ago, it gave her an unparalleled chance to meet counterparts beyond the Five Eyes partners, and to be part of a united response to the invasion very close to the epicentre of the crisis.
The Russian ambassador was called into the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and told what New Zealand's reprisals would be if the invasion continues to Kyiv, namely travel bans, specific export bans, diplomatic measures, and presumably being called into the actual Beehive.
She is holding something in reserve, not in the expectation that Putin will be quivering in his shoes, but so that if and when allies and partners step up their response, New Zealand can do so as well, as limited as that may be.
It is unfortunate that a better version of the Autonomous Sanctions Bill has not yet been passed. Such a law would extend the type of sanctions the Government could legally take and enforce beyond United Nations' sanctioned measures and beyond small-fry domestic measures.
National introduced and failed to pass the bill when it was last in Government. It then converted to a member's bill in the name of former Foreign Minister Gerry Brownlee but in September last year, Mahuta gave sound reasons for withholding Government support.
It was limited to the Asia-Pacific area and took no account of how it would apply in response to human rights abuses.
She indicated that Mfat would be working on a better version of a similar law and pointed to superior legislation in Australia. They now need their feet held to the flame.
Mahuta is in London and is meeting with British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss before heading to Geneva to address the UN Human Rights Council in which she has a special interest.
Covid-19 handicapped Mahuta in her start as Foreign Minister. The Ukraine crisis, though unwelcome, may be just the right time for Mahuta to reboot.
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