Sharma talks on his exit from Labour. Video / NZ Herald
OPINION:
An unnecessary byelection has been forced by the unnecessary resignation of a former member of the Labour Party caucus who is battling irrelevance.
That said, the byelection is likely to be a bloodbath for Labour.
If it were to win, under current economic conditions, and against current unfavourable polling,it would be a huge boost for its chances at next year's election.
If National and Christopher Luxon were to lose, it would be an utter failure.
One thing is for sure, though. The byelection will not be about Gaurav Sharma and his exhausting and bitter battle with Labour over staffing issues. And it won't be about Covid. It may be about Treaty of Waitangi issues if Winston Peters and David Seymour decide to campaign there hard.
It will definitely be about inflation, mortgage rates, rents, and the cost of petrol, power and fuel.
It won't matter to voters that New Zealand is doing rather better on a number of economic indicators compared to other countries (on unemployment rates and inflation for example).
A loss by National and Christopher Luxon in Hamilton West would be a big failure. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Labour will be campaigning against a tide in a famous weather-vane seat.
Byelections are a chance for voters to give a Government a bloody nose, at the best of times. We are not in the best of times.
Sharma, who won the Hamilton West seat in 2020 with a 6267 majority, was suspended then expelled from the Labour caucus in August after a dispute about staffing issues.
He was offered a way back, with mediation, but rejected it.
Until today, he sat as an independent MP in Parliament, but will now force a $1 million byelection in order to stand again as an independent MP.
His reasoning for the byelection is that Labour planned to invoke the so-called waka jumping law sometime next year.
That would have forced him out of Parliament - without triggering a byelection - if it were done within six months of a general election.
Gaurav Sharma's story is not the stuff of martyrdom. Photo / Mark Mitchell
And so he is now forcing a byelection to avoid his constituents being without an MP for six months next year.
Jacinda Ardern denies that she ever planned to invoke the waka-jumping bill on him. He says she is lying.
It is possible that some members of the party's ruling New Zealand Council did discuss scenarios with him which included the waka-jumping law.
But in disputes such as this, people who feel under siege tend to hear what they want to hear. A legal possibility quickly turns into an absolute certainty when you think they're out to get you.
Sharma's majority in 2020 was impressive because it was built on a solid majority of 7731 by National's Tim MacIndoe at the 2017 election.
Act's David Seymour could make the Treaty an issue in the byelection. Photo / Mark Mitchell
It is possible Sharma has some pockets of personal loyalty but his story is not the stuff of martyrdom. He has no great following or cause in the way that Winston Peters, Tariana Turia or even Hone Harawira had when they forced byelections.
Ultimately, it was Jacinda Ardern in a Covid crisis, not Gaurav Sharma who won Hamilton West for Labour in 2020 but it will be a miracle if she can save it in 2022.
