Jacinda Ardern has finished a successful whirlwind of foreign engagements over four months, meeting leaders from Singapore and Japan, the United States, Europe, the UK, Australia, and the Pacific in Fiji for the Pacific Islands Forum. Senior political correspondent Audrey Young sets out an A to Z of the people,
Audrey Young: A to Z of Jacinda Ardern's foreign affairs whirlwind
Anthony Albanese and Jacinda Ardern appearing at the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum in Sydney in July. Photo / James Gourley. Getty Images
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It's all about China and its expansion as an economic and military power. The actions and omissions of China, and reactions to it, increasingly underpin New Zealand's relationships in the Asia Pacific. New Zealand is regularly judged by how in step it is with its Five Eyes partners on China matters. China already has the largest Navy in the world, and has vowed to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. It has persuaded the Solomons to enter a security pact and proposed a regional "Common Development Vision," which has not been advanced. China is likely to persist with proposals with individual states. Ardern last visited Beijing in April 2019.
D is for Defence
Defence Minister Peeni Henare last week announced a review of defence policy, which will be delivered to the Cabinet in stages (first, high-level strategy and priorities by October, and second future force structure by April) but the final product will be a white paper. It will also reassess the Defence Capability Plan 2019 of $20 billion of capital acquisitions out to 2030, which was signalled in 2019. But the following purchases are not in doubt: four new P-8A Poseidon aircraft, five new C-130J super Hercules aircraft, and 43 Bushmaster vehicles.
E is for EU trade deal
Let's just call it a trade deal. It doesn't deserve to be called a "free" trade deal. Ardern went to Brussels in late June to finalise the agreement with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. It cuts tariffs on most New Zealand export after seven years but keeps quotas for sheep meat, beef, butter and cheese. It allows some increases in quotas but the concept of quotas is anathema to free trade. If the UK-NZ FTA is the gold standard, this is more like a bronze.
F is for Frank
Fiji and its leader, Josaia Voreque "Frank" Bainimarama have emerged as indispensable regional leaders for the Pacific. It helps that Suva is home to the HQ of the Pacific Islands Forum where he hosted the leaders' summit last week. It has been a long journey for the former head of the Fiji military who ousted the Government in 2006. He started holding elections in 2014 and in subsequent years has assumed a role as a regional leader, particularly on climate change.
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G is for G20
Short for Group of 20 (countries) it was given new life in 2009 to respond to the global financial crisis and now meets annually. New Zealand is not a member but was a special guest the year Australia hosted it. Indonesia is the current chair. At a foreign ministers' meeting hosted last week in Bali, China's Wang Yi took the chance to meet with Australia's foreign minister Penny Wong, breaking a diplomatic impasse, and with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The meetings could have gone better, however. China has got into the habit of producing lists of things supposedly offending countries should do to improve relations, which only causes offence.
H is for Helen Clark
Every Prime Minister is the country's ultimate foreign minister and Ardern's former boss, Helen Clark, with her nine years as Prime Minister and role as former head of the UNDP, retains her expertise and interest in foreign policy, even if it irritates Ardern occasionally. Referring to the US-NZ statement issued after Ardern's visit to the White House, Clark recently suggested that New Zealand's independent foreign policy was being eroded by signing up to "group think" over China and she warned against the dangers of isolating it into them-and-us camps.
I is for Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity
It is easier to say what it is not than what it is. It is not a free trade deal and it is not open to China. It is a nascent framework being developed by the United States that has chapter headings for future negotiation and not much else: trade; supply chain resilience; clean energy, decarbonisation and infrastructure; and tax and anti-corruption. It was officially launched in May when President Biden visited Japan and included New Zealand. Countries in the region are opting in, for fear of missing out it if becomes more tangible and important to economic integration. It gives the US a leadership role in regional commercial space after it withdrew from TPP. But leadership over what?
J is for Joe Biden
United States president Joe Biden hosted Jacinda Ardern at the White House in June, the first official visit since John Key's in 2014. Biden came to the job in 2021 with the promise of repairing the friendships Donald Trump had neglected or damaged. But Biden trashed his reputation early on by hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 with little regard to the views of the rest of the international community which had taken part in the 20-year war or the consequences for Afghans. He has promoted the concept of an alliance of democracies and held a Summit of Democracies in 2021 that Ardern took part in. During the presidential election he promised to make Saudi Arabia a pariah state over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but has just concluded a visit in a bid to get it to increase its oil supply, to help cut petrol prices and to disadvantage Russia.
K is for Kiribati
The poorest island state in the Pacific is making waves. It withdrew from the Pacific Islands Forum on the eve of its meeting last week, most probably in an attempt to please China. It recognised China from 1980 to 2003, then switched to Taiwan until September 2019, when it switched back to China under the leadership of Taneti Maamau, who took office in 2016. China foreign minister Wang Yi signed 10 agreements during a visit to Kiribati in May. Kiribati announced in November last year that commercial fishing would resume in the Phoenix Islands protected area, about 400,00 sq km. Reuters reported last year that China had drawn up plans to upgrade an airstrip on Kanton island about 3000km from US Pacific Command in Hawaii. China used to run a space-tracking station on Bikinibeu islet. If it has any sense, it will return to the forum before the next summit.
L is for Lowy Institute
The Sydney-based foreign policy think-tank is where Ardern gave the most important speech of her recent trip to Europe and Australia. It set out her view of what comprises an independent foreign policy for New Zealand while remaining part of the traditional western alliance. It echoed the message of Helen Clark's concerns, that diplomacy in the China context must be preferred lest the sabre-rattling becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, that polarisation is dangerous, that including it in economic architecture, including the CPTPP is it meets the standards create the connections that reduce the likelihood of conflict. It effectively says "we will always do the right thing but we will say it as we see it". It has been pilloried by defence hawks in Australia.
M is for Manasseh Sogavare
Solomons Islands Prime Minister is in his fourth stint as leader and is nothing if not a leader of consequence. His fourth stint began in April 2019 and in September of that year he switched from recognising Taiwan to recognising China. He signed a security pact with China in April despite the record of Australia and New Zealand in responding to security crises in the Solomons. It will involve the deployment of Chinese military and police if requested. Sogavare assured leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum last week it would not involve China establishing a base in Solomon Islands. But it is not a base as such that is necessarily the problem. It is the possibility of a persistent military presence or "militarisation" in the region as Ardern describes it. And that is down to China.
N is for Nato
The leaders of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand – four of the nine non-Nato partners - were all invited to the recent summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Nato in Madrid because of their interest in the rise of China. Ardern's message to the summit was that the legacy of Ukraine should not be an arms race or a more polarised and dangerous world. She also rejected the US' democracy vs autocracy rhetoric. New Zealand formally became a partner of Nato in 2012 when National's John Key signed up but it had worked closely with Nato under the previous Labour Government when Nato led the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan.
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O is for OE
Attracting young people for working holidays in New Zealand is no longer just a nice-to-have as young Kiwis leave the country with the borders. Ardern and Spanish president Pedro Sanchez increased the working holiday scheme from 200 a year to 2000 a year and the reciprocal scheme with Britain has increased the age limit from 30 to 35 and the time spent in work from two years to three.
P is for Pacific Islands Forum
Colin Meads was the captain of the All Blacks and Me and You and a Dog Named Boo by Lobo was the top single in 1971 when the first "South Pacific Forum" meeting was held in Wellington – Keith Holyoake was Prime Minister. It was renamed the "Pacific Islands Forum" in 1999. For decades the tension was about the pressure exerted by Australia and New Zealand for Pacific states to improve their governance and get rid of corruption. The focus shifted to security after coups in Fiji, and riots within the Solomon Islands. In recent years it has been dominated by issues of fisheries management, climate change and rivalry between the United States and China. High-level attention and promises of assistance is not new but the attention to the region from China and the United States this year has been next-level.
Q is for the Queen
The Queen is celebrating 70 years on the Throne, the longest period of any British monarch, or New Zealand monarch, but is growing frail quickly. As New Zealand's Queen, she is head of state but not head of Government. The Prime Minister is head of government and there have been 16 different Prime Ministers in New Zealand over her reign. She is Queen for 14 countries besides the UK and is head of the Commonwealth, of which there are 54 countries. Rwanda hosted the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in June. New Zealand was represented by Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta.
R is for Russia
Russia's invasion of Ukraine unified most of the world in disgust, with the notable exception China. The US and the EU led a global response including a change of law in New Zealand so that it could place sanctions on individuals associated with the Russia government. New Zealand has also set up a special visa for family members of Ukrainians living here. It has also provided a dozen military intelligence analysts, a Hercules for transport logistics in Europe and training Ukrainian service personnel in UK on the use of the L119 Light Gun. Previously, the law required New Zealand to act in response to UN sanctions. But as Ardern has repeatedly said, the use by Russia's veto on the UN Security Council to prevent consideration of the invasion is "morally bankrupt". Putin waited until after the Beijing winter Olympics before beginning the invasion. Russia has called on Nato to rule out expansion in Europe - Nato has since begun to process applications by Finland and Sweden to join up.
S is for Singapore
New Zealand's best friends in Asia, it was not surprising that Ardern chose Singapore for her first trade delegation this year when the borders opened up. Lee Hsien Loong has been Prime Minister since 2004 and was deputy PM for 14 years before that. It is an outward looking economy that practises as well as preaches free trade. She went on to Japan to meet new PM Fumio Kishida.
T is for Trade Minister
Despite the sub-standard EU trade deal, Trade Minister Damien O'Connor has accumulated a lot of notches in his trade belt and is one of Ardern's best performing ministers. The high-quality UK Free Trade Agreement was concluded, as was the upgrade of the China FTA. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership was concluded and has been ratified and he played a leadership role at the World Trade Organisation's 12th ministerial conference in June (the first ministerial in five years) on an agreement to end fisheries subsidies. Unfortunately the United States is still holding up reform of the appellate at the WTO, part of the rules-based order which is vital to the interests of smaller countries like New Zealand.
U is for the United States
If promises translate to reality, the United States is set to become much more active in the Pacific. Vice President Kamala Harris was given a special spot for a virtual presentation at the Pacific Islands Forum when other countries were excluded. She said the US would increase its presence in the region, would pay another $600 million into the Forum Fisheries Agency for fishing rights over 10 years, set up embassies in Kiribati and Tonga, and produce a US strategy on the Pacific. Following a Pacific tour by the National Security Council's Kurt Campbell in April, the US established the Partners in the Pacific Blue (with New Zealand, Australia, Japan and the UK) to encourage greater co-ordination in their support of Pacific Island states.
V is for Victoria
Ardern began her trade mission to Australia this month in Victoria and met Premier Dan Andrews and they have a bit in common. He has become a magnet for the Right over Covid lockdowns and mandates and its reasonably good relationship with China. The Federal Government last year cancelled a couple of deals between the Victorian Government and China under new veto laws.
W is for Winston
The former Foreign Minister Winston Peters is a monkey on the back of his former Coalition partners from outside Parliament. But not much of his criticism is directed at Foreign Affairs or Ardern herself. Were he to retire from politics, he could play a valuable role for New Zealand as a regular envoy to the Pacific where he has standing over many years and in leading New Zealand's Pacific Reset in 2019. But it is clear he intends for New Zealand First to contest next year's election and so his potential service to his country remains an idea only.
X is for Xi Jinping
China's president Xi Jinping has presided over a period of military and economic expansion and an aggressive form of diplomacy that does not win close friends. But his grip on power is set to tighten. He is expected to be re-elected for a third term later this year at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, a meeting held only twice a decade. Premier Li Keqiang is due to be replaced next March. In the meantime, China's economy has taken a hit with Covid lockdowns delivering 0.4 per cent growth in the June quarter. The fact that China is the top trade partner of over 120 countries makes for some nervousness about a global recession.
Y is for Year 2024
That is the year is which Samoa has agreed to host the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, a mammoth undertaking for the 54-member group and the smallest host country to date. Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata'afa may want to call on the support of the "Pacific family" in preparations for hosting.
Z is for Zelenskyy
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it his job to remind the world of the daily assault on his country from Russia. Ardern was invited to visit when she was in Europe but by the time it was issued, it was not logistically possible. She spoke to Zelenskyy from Brussels to offer continued solidarity. Ardern did not seek an invitation, and has said Zelenskyy would have more important things to do than host her. She forgets that the one thing Ukraine cannot afford is to be forgotten, and an appearance by her might help.
•Additional reporting by Reuters and RNZ.
