Auckland's immigration influx being used as an election weapon

By WARREN GAMBLE

Real estate agent Eric Oettli came to New Zealand from his native Switzerland in the 1950s.

He could not speak English and went to school to learn the language alongside boys from Holland and Germany

"Nothing was said about it. There was no public outcry," recalls Oettli, the Real Estate Institute's Auckland district president.

"It was certainly not politicised."

He believes New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is using immigration for the wrong reasons, peddling xenophobia to pick up votes.

In speeches across the country Peters, echoing his 1996 campaign, has attacked immigration as out of control, "fundamentally changing the character of our country".

He blames immigration for pushing up Auckland house prices and inflation, links it to gridlocked Auckland motorways, and says too many immigrants are a drain on schools and hospitals.

Act leader Richard Prebble has also blamed immigration for projected increases in unemployment, and the Auckland housing boom, leading to higher interest rates.

The Weekend Herald tried to discover whether the claims are backed by facts and whether immigration can be a positive force.

POPULATION

Between the 1996 and 2001 census the Auckland region's resident population has risen by around 90,000 people to 1,158,891. No official estimates for the makeup of that change are available, but natural increases and immigration are the two biggest reasons.

Auckland is now 68.5 per cent European, 14 per cent Pacific Island, 13.8 per cent Asian, 11.6 per cent Maori, and 1.2 per cent other. (The numbers do not add up to 100 because people are allowed to list more than one ethnic group in the census).

Nationally, the latest statistics show that New Zealand had a record high of 91,200 permanent and long-term arrivals for the year to May.

More than two-thirds - 66,400 - were new migrants with the biggest net gain coming from China. The remaining 24,800 were New Zealanders returning in the largest numbers for more than a decade.

When departures are taken into account, the country's net gain for the May 2002 year was 31,200. That is similar to the mid-1990 levels - the peak was 37,779 in 1997 - which Peters took aim at.

The difference this time is in the makeup of the new migrants - foreign students are the biggest component.

Population and economic experts argue that with falling fertility rates and, of course, the inability to stop New Zealanders leaving, immigration offers the only long-term means to increase the population, particularly the labour force needed to drive the economy.

HOUSE PRICES AND INFLATION

The claim is that immigration has pushed up Auckland house prices, fuelling inflation and higher interest rates.

Median house prices in the Auckland region have risen from $192,000 in 1995 to $246,500 last year.

Oettli says the influx of largely Asian immigrants in the mid-1990s, mainly from Taiwan and Hong Kong, helped to boost Auckland property values and strong migration gains in the last year have also contributed to a rising market.

He says that is not a bad thing.

"Ordinary Kiwis also realised very good prices for property they sold. To me that's all positive."

What about the argument that the rising prices put homes out of reach of the poor?

"I would say no. It's easier to get into your own home now than 10 years ago because of competitive bank lending and lower interest rates."

Economists say domestic demand has been a bigger factor than immigration in the latest housing boom.

The Reserve Bank's recent interest rate increases were in response to generalised inflationary pressure, not just house price increases.

The bank says migrants may increase inflation pressures in the short term but, as they contribute to the supply side of the economy in the longer-term, their impact is roughly neutral.

It says the high component of students in the latest migration gains may mute the inflationary impact because of their lower earning power than workers.

Economists say the skills, innovations, generally higher productivity and market contacts brought in by migrants are a key for economic growth.

JOBS

Immigrants compete directly for jobs, particularly low-skilled ones, it is claimed, depriving young people of a traditional entry to the workforce, depressing wages and working conditions.

The latest unemployment rate for the March quarter is 5.3 per cent, the lowest in 13 years. The quarter also had a record high labour force participation rate of 66.9 per cent of the working age population.

In its latest projections last month, the Labour Department expects the unemployment rate to remain fairly steady between 5 and 5.5 per cent over the next 18 months.

The unemployment rate for Maori was 10.8 per cent, compared with 10.2 per cent for "other" ethnic groups, 9.7 per cent for Pacific peoples, and 4.2 per cent for European.

The latest employment survey recorded relatively strong income growth of 3.6 per cent in total average hourly earnings for the year to February.

Auckland Chamber of Commerce chief executive Michael Barnett says 40 per cent of employers in the region were still having difficulty finding workers with the right skills.

There was no evidence New Zealanders were missing out to new migrants in the job market. In fact, some highly skilled migrants faced a difficult time getting work because of negative employer attitudes.

Barnett says immigration has always fuelled growth, balanced skill shortages, and provided welcome diversity.

EDUCATION

Auckland schools are under threat from too many immigrants, it is claimed, raising the possibility that local students may miss out or suffer from disruption of classes involving poor English speakers.

Education Minister Trevor Mallard has acknowledged that schools are reaching capacity for overseas students.

"I have no doubt that some schools are pushing right to the limit of their capacity to maintain quality education standards for their students," he told the Weekend Herald in May.

Last year there were 52,000 fee-paying overseas students in New Zealand. Most were at language schools and universities, but 10,555 were at primary and secondary schools, double the number in 1999.

Many schools rely on the income from students to boost what they say is inadequate government funding, allowing them to employ more staff, and buy equipment such as computers.

Principals such as Rutherford College's Cliff Edmeades say New Zealand schools would be worse off financially and socially without foreign students. He says no local students are displaced by the 10 per cent of overseas students. To avoid disrupting mainstream classes, students taken in without English have fulltime language tuition in separate classes until they can understand lessons. The school employs five English language teachers and six extra mainstream teachers with overseas student fees.

HEALTH

The claims: Immigrant surges also put pressure on the health system. A lack of screening leads to a higher incidence of diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis.

The Auckland District Health Board's needs assessment survey last year says United Nations-approved refugees and the city's large asylum seeker community have high health status problems compared with the rest of the population.

"There is serious concern regarding the spread of communicable diseases in Auckland populations due to the levels of infections of HIV, tuberculosis and other infectious diseases."

It says the true incidence of disease in the refugee populations is not known, nor does it have information on the health status of other categories of immigrants.

The board called for New Zealand to adopt the practice in other countries which require medical screenings for those wanting to stay longer than 12 months.

In New Zealand a person can be in the country for up to two years without screening.

The board has 290 interpreters on call to deal with 98 languages, compared with 10 interpreters a decade ago.

TRAFFIC

Immigrant-fuelled population rises have contributed to gridlock on Auckland motorways.

Transit says traffic volumes on Auckland's motorways have increased by 14 per cent in the past five years, measured by average annual daily trips. Motorists now make 892,820 trips a day, compared with 780,509 in 1996.

Immigration is a driver of population increase, but there is no way to gauge its impact on traffic volumes.

However, Auckland bus companies attribute the sharp increase in international students - the main component of the current migration boost - to a big rise in bus commuters.

Barnett says traffic in the city has been increasing steadily for the past 30 years.

He says traffic congestion is more attributable to the failure to complete key parts of the roading network.

WELFARE

The claim is that immigrants benefit from lax welfare policies, allowing them to receive millions of dollars in benefits.

Work and Income could not be reached for information on immigrant welfare payments.

But in its latest quarterly profile it shows there were 59,580 people from "other" ethnic groups receiving benefits, compared with 113,267 Maori, 317,697 European and 34,376 Pacific Island.

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