Wayne Brown's vote has nearly doubled from 15 per to 28 per cent since July. Photo / Greg Bowker
Wayne Brown's vote has nearly doubled from 15 per to 28 per cent since July. Photo / Greg Bowker
ANALYSIS
The polls are pointing to a tight finish in the final weeks of the Auckland mayoral race.
The marathon contest has been full of twists and turns, none more so than the surprise exit of restaurateur Leo Molloy last month and Viv Beck pulling out last weekunder the cloud of a $353,000 unpaid bill.
After months of shadow-boxing on the right, the contest has come down to a two-person dual between Wayne Brown (who claims Auckland is broken and wants to fix it) and Efeso Collins (the status quo candidate promising free public transport).
The latest Auckland Ratepayers' Alliance-Curia (ARA) poll yesterday saw Collins go from being ahead to two points behind businessman Wayne Brown.
Efeso Collins, left, has lost his lead, albeit by a nose, to Wayne Brown, right. Photo / Greg Bowker
A series of ARA polls have highlighted this is the most interesting - and closely-fought - contest since the first Super City election in 2010 and Manukau Mayor Len Brown and Auckland City Mayor John Banks' long, gruelling battle. Brown won two terms on the trot, followed by Phil Goff winning the next two. Both men were endorsed by Labour.
One thing the polls do point to is that, after 12 years of Labour mayors, there is a mood for change. The first ARA poll in June had the change vote at nearly 80 per cent and just 22 per cent for Collins.
The problem then was the 'change' vote was split four ways between Molloy, Brown, Beck and Craig Lord. That has changed since Molloy pulled out after dropping from second to third place in last month's poll, followed by Beck quitting last week after a shambolic campaign.
Leo Molloy quit the race when he dropped from second to third place in the August poll. Photo / Fiona Goodall
What is interesting is Brown's vote has been building momentum since July - even before Molloy and Beck quit.
From July, Brown's vote has nearly doubled from 15 per to 28 per cent, but he is still a long way short of the nearly 80 per cent 'change' vote in June.
Momentum means everything at elections and with Beck pulling out halfway through the last poll and her financial backers "unreservedly" supporting Brown, the businessman can reasonably expect another boost in the last two weeks of postal voting.
What's more, support for Collins is stuck in the mid-20s.
This is way short of the 50 per cent support Labour-endorsed mayors Brown and Goff secured in each of their two mayoral wins. Both mayors were able to get cross-party support, whereas Collins is struggling on this count.
Another factor in Brown's favour is the latest ARA poll finding the heavy voting block of over-60s favour him, while Collins' support is stronger among the under-40s - many of whom live in the digital world and have never used a letterbox.
Collins has one big advantage over his rival - a ground game of several hundred volunteers and Labour and Green candidates standing for the council and local boards who are sharing his picture and vision on the campaign trail.
Viv Beck pulled out of the mayoral race last week. Photo / Greg Bowker
He is also encouraged by a rolling poll from Talbot Mills, which does Labour's polling, showing a steady upward path since July. The latest figures have Collins on 27 per cent to Brown's 22 per cent.
Brown has a zero ground game, relying on a big-spending advertising campaign on digital billboards, radio, print and television.
Getting the vote out in the final dash will be crucial for both camps, both of whom are on edge and predicting a tight finish.
This Sunday the TVNZ show Q+A will have two further polls, one taken just before Beck pulled out and one after. Host Jack Tame says the results are "verrry interesting".
