Leo Molloy has backed out of the Auckland mayoral race, conceding 'I cannot win.'
Video / Newstalk ZB
ANALYSIS:
The Auckland mayoral election has been thrown into turmoil with the shock withdrawal of Leo Molloy in the dying hour before nominations closed today.
Today's Ratepayers' Alliance-Curia poll was the killer blow for the abrasive and aggressive restaurateur whose campaign has endured a rocky month, first with Molloy's expletive-ridden appearance on a satirical television show, followed by his campaign manager and communications director walking out the door.
What was left of Molloy's campaign team held a "hui" this morning. Just before 11.30am, Molloy issued a semi-gracious statement, wishing the other candidates well - "who won't do as good a job as I would have" - and admitting he could not win.
"The trend is your friend and the trend is going against me," he told the Herald.
The departure of Molloy, whose goal was to become the leading opponent to take on Efeso Collins, creates a fascinating but uncertain path to polling day on October 8.
The big question is where does Molloy's angry, anti-establishment vote go? At this stage, Molloy is not endorsing any other candidate, but that could change.
On Friday, businessman Leo Molloy withdrew from the Auckland mayoralty race after support dropped according to the latest polls. Photo / Dean Purcell
With 14.5 per cent of the vote in today's poll, Molloy's tens of thousands of supporters are unlikely to pivot towards Collins, the status quo candidate who has the backing of Labour and the Greens.
Those voters will now start paying attention to businessman Wayne Brown, Heart of the City chief executive Viv Beck and the live-wire, wild card in the race Craig Lord, who came a respectable third in the 2019 mayoral contest.
Today's poll shows momentum is building behind Brown, who is cranking up an advertising campaign with his message to "Fix Auckland".
Beck, who has the backing of National's de facto local government arm Communities and Residents, is struggling and slipped further in today's poll to just 12.5 per cent.
If the polls are sending a consistent message, it's that Aucklanders are tiring of a left-leaning mayor and want change. This is borne out by Collins' poll numbers, which are stuck in the mid 20s.
In the previous four mayoral contests, Len Brown and Phil Goff secured 50 per cent of the vote by treading a middle path that appealed to centre-right voters. Collins is caught between representing the status quo and being captured by the left.
If a majority of Aucklanders can coalesce around Brown or Beck, then the left's hold on the mayoral chains could be coming to an end.
