Auckland mayoralty: Is it the Efeso Collins and Leo Molloy show - or still too early to say - Simon Wilson

Auckland mayoral candidate Efeso Collins at an election meeting in Penrose, with Wayne Brown behind him. Photo / Greg Bowker

OPINION:

Is the Auckland mayoral election finally taking shape? A new poll of 500 potential voters seems to say yes. As the number of undecided voters falls, Manukau councillor Efeso Collins has moved ahead of the other candidates, with 27 per cent, trailed by Viaduct restaurateur Leo Molloy on 23 per cent.

Central-city business advocate Viv Beck is further back on 18 per cent, ahead of the businessmen Wayne Brown on 15 per cent and Craig Lord on 13 per cent.

Still, it's early days and the poll, conducted by Curia for the Auckland Ratepayers Alliance, is far from a sure guide to the outcome.

The sample size is 500, which is small. The margin of error is 4.4 per cent, which means almost every candidate might actually be ahead of the one listed one above them, or behind the one listed below. Only the gap between Molloy and Beck is slightly wider.

And 35 per cent of respondents were undecided. That's come down from the 50 per cent recorded in the last Curia poll, but it's still very high.

Voting will be by postal ballot, beginning in September and ending on October 8. Between now and then. The undecideds might not vote at all. Or they might become susceptible to the charms one candidate or another has so far kept hidden from us. We just don't know.

Having said that, this poll does create some winners and losers, for now at least.

Efeso Collins, known to his friends as Fes, is a winner because he's in front. But he's the only centre-left candidate in the race and he'll want to get further ahead before the centre-right votes coalesce around one of two of his opponents.

The poll was conducted over July 3-10, after Collins launched his "safer communities" campaign. He announced his fares-free public transport policy two days into the period.

Mayoral candidates Wayne Brown (left), Viv Beck, Leo Molloy, Efeso Collins, Craig Lord, Gary Brown and Ted Johnston. Photo / Greg Bowker

Leo Molloy is also a winner, as the leading centre-right opponent. But he should also be doing better by now. Although he has by far the biggest media profile, social and mainstream, it hasn't catapulted him to the front.

Viv Beck will be disappointed. She got a boost from the last poll, which had her level pegging with the others. But as more voters have started to decide, too few have been deciding for her.

That's despite her bold transport policy, launched at the start of the polling period. The policy proposes a delay to light rail (city centre to Māngere) in order to fast-track rapid buses in other parts of the city. It should have shifted the conversation, but Collins' fares-free plan gets much more attention.

Beck has just been endorsed by the National Party's front organisation, Communities and Residents. That outfit has not done well in Auckland Council elections, so it's not clear if this will help or hinder her.

The poll is bad news for Wayne Brown, whose "Mr Fix-it" message, promoted strongly in radio ads, isn't getting the traction he expected. That's the biggest single takeout from this poll.

Brown will soon need a rethink if he's to stay in this race.