“I would describe it as above average confidence that the system will move into the New Zealand region.”
Auckland Emergency Management (AEM) controller Rachel Kelleher said there would be a “settled run” of weather in the city this week.
She said people should use this break in the weather to clean up from last week’s flooding and prepare for possible severe weather this weekend.
Kelleher said waste collection teams are urging people to maintain health and safety when handling flood-damaged items and keep away from staff’s work areas.
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has opened long-term emergency accommodation for displaced residents, she said.
International weather modellers expect the storm to reach our shores from Sunday.
Noll said the country, especially flood-ravaged regions such as Auckland, Northland and the Coromandel, could be dealing with a large amount of rain given the system has emerged in the tropics.
“When you’re talking about a system that was once in the tropics you could be talking about a month’s worth of rain or more. That does depend on the forward speed, how fast the system is moving and what part of the country it moves into,” he said.
Noll said there is potential for powerful winds strong enough to do damage.
He also said the storm would cause rough seas despite whether it would track over the country or not.
MetService meteorologist Peter Little said the cyclone would “absolutely” head towards New Zealand but also said it was too early to say if it would track over the country or if it would be further away.
Various weather models currently show that the cyclone’s centre will track over the top of the North Island.
“The system is expected to track south eastwards, there are some differences in how quickly it is brought south eastwards and whether it will be near the country or whether it will be a little bit further away but certainly there is a risk of further heavy rain for northern parts of the country from very late on Sunday into Tuesday,” said Little.
“We’re monitoring very closely obviously because even a small amount of rain for some of the areas recently hit by flooding could cause problems.”
Little said even a small change in the cyclone’s position or intensity over the next few days would have a large impact on where the system would end up.
“A very small change in the next couple of days could end up with a different picture,” he said.
Meanwhile, Hauraki Gulf Weather tweeted that the storm could be historical if it were to form and said it would bring dangerous winds with it.
“All main global models apart from the Chinese brings a strong extra-tropical cyclone into the upper North Island late Monday. With over five days out, things can still change, so this is still early guidance but the trend remains concerning,” said the forecaster.
WeatherWatch said the developing weather trend over the past few days has been concerning. It said more certainty of the cyclone’s path would be known on Friday.
Update on Auckland Flood clean-up response
Auckland Emergency Management (AEM) controller Rachel Kelleher said people have been disguising themselves as council officers and trying to enter people’s properties.
Auckland Council local board operations manager Oliver Roberts thanked volunteers and council staff who have been helping the flood response.
A working bee will be held at a community response centre at Wesley Primary School this Saturday, he said.
Roberts said if communities were holding events and they wanted those promoted they could ask the council.
“If you need help reach out and ask,” said Roberts.
“For those wanting to get involved, keep supporting wider friends and whānau,” he said.
Roberts said he understood it was a difficult time but asked people to “be kind” to council staff.
