It is shaping up to be a wet and cloudy Auckland Anniversary long weekend across the North Island, including at holiday hotspots, but there is a promise of sunshine towards the end.
A low-pressure system will approach New Zealand from the northwest, bringing rain and warm humid nights. MetService forecasts widespread rain and strong northerly winds for central and northern regions on Saturday, continuing into Sunday as the low moves across the North Island.
MetService has forecast showers for Saturday and Sunday across most of the North Island, followed by a finer day on Monday.
“It’s going to be quite a wet weekend. We’re also looking at highs of 25C and 24C for Auckland, sort of about average for January,” said MetService meteorologist Ngaire Wotherspoon.
MetService is tipping hot and muggy nights for the North Island, with overnight lows of 16 to 19C.
The pattern remains the same at seaside holiday escapes around Auckland. Northland has a similar bleak forecast to the City of Sails, as does the Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Waikato.
The hottest temperatures in the North Island over the long weekend were expected in Hastings, sitting on 28C on Saturday and Sunday and 24C on Monday, and Tauranga, which is tipped to reach 27C on Monday.
Whitianga should settle on 24C on Saturday and Sunday, rising to 26C on Monday.
Whangārei would go from 25C at the weekend to 24C on the public holiday.
Wotherspoon said the low-pressure system should move off to the east by Monday.
“Monday is the day to be out and about for regions observing Auckland Anniversary Day, as the low moves away and skies clear.
“A strong southerly flow keeps a lid on temperatures to start, but winds weaken as the day progresses,” Wotherspoon said.
But the day won’t be fine for everyone in New Zealand.
“It might still be rainy in some of those more eastern areas as the low moves off towards the east, so places like Wellington, up to Gisborne, it’s still looking pretty rainy on Monday, but it should clear,” she said.
‘Next couple of days looking quite dry’
In the meantime, most of the country should see partly cloudy skies with the chance of a shower about West Auckland and also in Wellington.
“[Friday] is looking quite dry. We do have a front moving up the South Island [from Thursday] but that’s really going to fizzle out before it reaches the North Island,” Wotherspoon said.
However, early Saturday morning, the low-pressure system over the Tasman Sea begins spinning into the West Coast of the South Island, MetService’s rain radar map showed.
It showed the rain hitting the North Island on Saturday evening and enveloping the island overnight.
Looking further ahead, Wotherspoon said there were no obvious clear runs of good days visible in forecasts.
“We don’t really have any clear, long runs of sun on the horizon. We’ve got some more sun coming from the south as well on Monday.
“There aren’t any of those long, blocking ridges coming up, none of those massive areas of high pressure which results in the sunny stuff, but there should be some fine spells in there.”
Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.
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