Duncan said data WeatherWatch.co.nz trusted from various global computer models suggested this cyclone has "severe" potential being in such ideal conditions.
"The lows that may form closer to New Zealand look significantly weaker but still have the potential for some severe weather, but perhaps more importantly may bring some rain to dry areas," Duncan said.
He said despite the three previous cyclone threats in the New Zealand area so far this year, all have been stopped due to high pressure before reaching the country.
"High pressure looks to dominate in our area still, maybe for the rest of March, but there are some cracks showing in this solid belt of pressure and is why we've seen some soaking rains in recent days - so anything is possible," Duncan said.
WeatherWatch.co.nz reports have stressed March was the peak of the South Pacific cyclone season so it was very normal to see tropical storms north of the country at this time.
Weather Watch Tuesday Night:
Auckland:
Tonight: Partly cloudy, sea breezes ease, 17C.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, light northwest winds then afternoon sea breezes, 24C.
Hamilton:
Tonight: Some cloud, light western northwest winds, 14C.
Tomorrow: Morning cloud then sunny areas, light winds tend westerly in the afternoon, 25C.
Tauranga:
Tonight: Some cloud, light northerly winds, 16C.
Tomorrow: Sunny spells, light winds, 26C.
New Plymouth
Tonight: Rain, 18C.
Tomorrow: Rain, 21C.
Wellington:
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, risk of a shower. Breezy north to northwest winds, 16C.
Tomorrow: Morning showers then mostly cloudy, breezy northwest winds, 22C.
Christchurch:
Tonight: Mainly clear skies, easterly winds ease, 13C.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny with some developing high cloud, a few late evening showers as northerly winds change southerly, 29C.
Dunedin:
Tonight: A few clouds, eastern northeast winds, 14C.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, evening showers possibly heavy as north east winds change fresh southwest, 25C.