KEY POINTS:
Outside Woolworths' supermarket in Northcote, semi-retired Fred Morgan is loading his car with shopping. Actually, there's not that much to load, only two half-full bags. Still, these groceries cost nearly $30.
The 62-year-old nods his head vigorously to the question "have you noticed prices for basic foods have risen lately?"
He no longer buys cheese because it's too expensive. In fact, he's cut back on dairy products in general and one thing he can't quite figure out is why milk costs more per litre than petrol. He can understand that petrol is transported halfway around the world, so there will be associated costs. But milk is hardly the same.
"And what about meat?" he asks. "Like mutton, you can't afford mutton chops any more, it's out of the question. Any meat is expensive."
Across town outside Pak'n Save in Henderson, shoppers are reacting the same way. It seems an era of higher food prices around the globe is kicking in at home and starting to bite.
That's the bad news. And there's more - there's no end in sight. Many factors are at play, such as the drought in Australia which has affected our grain supply.
There is also concern about grain shortages in other parts of the world as crops once used for food are being diverted for biofuels. Already there has been unrest. Mexicans are angry over tortilla ingredients and Italians over growing pasta prices.
The grain strain is coupled with rocketing oil prices, thus higher transport costs. But there is also the issue of exploding populations, particularly in China and India where residents are seeking a more Westernised diet,which is leading to a heavy demand for dairy and meat.
This is great for farmers, but such international market forces push up the prices we pay at home.
"You'd have to be dead not to notice," says Bronnie Geard, 38, a mother of two small children who wriggle in the back of the car in Henderson. "I put three items back today. I have a set limit and I stick to it regardless if prices go up." This week, fly spray, biscuits and a pastry brush had to go back on the shelf.
It's the basics which cost more, she says: "Milk and bread, the stuff you use every day." If it had not been for the increase in income she receives from Working for Families, life would be looking much bleaker.
At another car Flordeliza Skinner, 52, transfers a pack of frozen chicken pieces into a chilly bin. Not long ago she would have paid $15 for the pack, she says. This week she paid $25 and that was on special. The normal price is $31.
She has two children and wants to feed them in line with all the healthy eating messages but it's getting tougher. She paid $180 for this week's shop and thinks a year ago it would have cost about $100.
The shoppers are not imagining things. Mark Baker, general manager of retail for Foodstuffs [Pak'n Save and New World supermarkets] is amazed at the past year's price rises. "The lifts in costs have been unprecedented, with us struggling to remember when last we saw price increases of this size or magnitude."
He attributes rises to the cost of raw materials, such as sugar; to shortages caused by natural disasters, such as the droughts in Australia and hurricanes in America; plus a high global demand for milk solids and increased demand for bio-fuels. Predominantly, the increases are driven by wheat and dairy, he says. Like others, he predicts more rises.
Brenda Cutress, executive director of the Food and Grocery Council, says the food industry has strived to keep a lid on costs for the past five to 10 years but can't any more.
She wonders if there is an upside, perhaps people will change their lifestyles a little. There may be less reliance on processed foods [which are often grain-based] and more home cooked meals with families sitting around the table together.
"When prices go up we do all think more carefully, don't we? I mean, in the past when food was cheap and plentiful you could feel very guilty at the end of dinner putting things into the waste bin.
"I think now if food does creep up you think 'well, can I make the pumpkin soup last a couple of days' if you've got hungry kids or 'if there are vegetables over at the end of a meal we can reheat those or bubble and squeak them the next night.' "
Raewyn Fox, head of the country's Federation of Family Budgeting Services says budgets are squeezed tight and while clients were once mainly beneficiaries, now more people on middle incomes are seeking help.
It's not just food prices which are the problem. It's the fact that everything is going up - power, mortgage interest rates, rent and petrol. "Food is often the only variable, the only place where you can cut back."
When food goes up as well, people start looking at buying cheaper alternatives, which are not always the healthy options.
Yet some people on low incomes are very clever in how they buy their food, Fox says, and this can be as important a skill as budgeting.
"It's knowing how to make really good cuts of meat go further and having the right equipment to do that."
Budget services encourage people to learn these skills and shop wisely.
The key to surviving is careful planning and thinking ahead. "And it's not just thinking ahead on a week-to-week basis, it's doing the real annual forward planning."
Nutritionist Louise Brough from Massey University fears food price rises will impact on people on low incomes. When you are on a low income there is less disposable money and food takes up a bigger percentage of the income. When you can't afford much you tend not to buy "riskier" foods such as fresh fruit and vegetables - the very foods nutritionists want people to eat more of - because these foods can go off.
Processed foods in the freezer or cupboards don't go off as fast but they are less healthy. "They don't have the same nutritional value because they're full of sugar, saturated fat, transfats, salt, things we're trying to get people away from."
Nutritionists agree the Government needs to look at how to help people on low incomes in an era of rising food prices.
Britain has brought in a food voucher scheme for pregnant women and mothers of young children. Vouchers can only be swapped for items like milk, fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and baby formula.
Brough thinks it's not a bad idea because the money is ring-fenced for healthier foods and can't be spent on the power bill.
Another Massey University nutritionist, John Birkbeck, says the Government must monitor food price rises carefully for their impact on the poor, some of whom already have issues with poor nutrition and inappropriate food choices. But surprisingly, for most people he doesn't see rising food prices, at least in some areas, as doom and gloom.
Don't forget the war, he says. Food was rationed in Britain during World War II and people were never healthier. Butter, bacon, sugar, cheese and milk and other goods were rationed but not the fruit and vegetables which could be obtained locally. The British Nutrition Foundation website says many people were better fed as families were forced to adopt new eating patterns.
"Most people ate less meat, fat, eggs and sugar than they had eaten before but people who had a poor diet before were able to increase their intake of protein and vitamins because they received the same ration as everybody else."
From a nutritional sense, says Birkbeck, the fact that butter rose a whopping 23 per cent between September and October [and is tipped to rise further] doesn't matter.
"We don't need butter. Milk is a different matter and that is significant."
But while important for children, most adults don't drink a lot of milk, and if they eat more green, leafy vegetables as per the healthy eating message, and a modest amount of cheese they will get enough calcium.
Fish is promoted as a low fat healthy option, partly because of the protein and the Omega 3 it contains. Yet Birkbeck says there are other sources of protein and the fresh fish species around New Zealand, such as snapper [which is selling for around $25kg and tipped to rise] don't have a lot of Omega 3.
"If you're wanting Omega 3 you buy tuna or salmon or some of these canned oily fish like mackerel and they're actually not too expensive you know, and they're healthier in terms of the Omega 3 fat, which is one of the main reasons for eating fish."
As for meat, Birkbeck says most New Zealanders eat more meat than is nutritionally necessary.
At recommended levels of 90g of meat three times a week, which equates to a "pretty small" steak, it is still possible to get the iron, protein and B12 needed for a healthy diet.
And while food prices for basics are rising, fruit and vegetables grown in New Zealand are not expected to rise as dramatically, which is good news from the nutritionists' point of view.
But Birkbeck again cautions the Ministry of Health to keep a close watch on food prices for those on low incomes.
"If it's manifestly becoming excessive in terms of the individual's total income then I think we're just going to have to give them more money, it's as simple as that."
Other suggested remedies include removing GST from food.
Charles Waldegrave, social policy researcher and joint leader of the New Zealand Poverty Measurement Project, favours removing the 15 per cent tax on low incomes.
Many families are better off through Working for Families, which is indexed to inflation, but beneficiaries will be hurt by price increases, he says.
Green MP Sue Kedgley plans to bring food issues up at the Asia-Pacific Parliamentary Forum being held in Auckland next month.
She would like a resolution passed that no land in food production be switched to growing biofuels for cars - and she says it is high time New Zealand started to think about our food security, a term not used much since World War II and often used in conjunction with developing nations.
Given the international problems with grain and climate issues, New Zealand has to be careful not to leave itself vulnerable to global trends we can't do anything about.
"We think of ourselves as - and we are - one of the great food producing nations but we grow very few of these staples.
"We used to once be quite self-sufficient in wheat and oats, but now we import more than 50 per cent of our wheat.
"We grow very few oats and even the wheat growers that we do have, many are converting to dairy."
We could end up a nation of cows for dairy and a bit of beef and lamb production which is mostly exported, she says.
"I mean, we are now importing $2 billion worth of food a year, it's just increasing rapidly all the time."
Economist Tony Alexander, however, is not too worried about New Zealanders coping with rises, though he agrees some lifestyle changes could be in store.
"You have to adapt, that's all. I mean, there's no ending of mankind or anything involved here.
"One of the more positive developments out there, quite frankly, is the strong increase in not so much food prices, but oil prices.
"Economic theory says that as something becomes in perceived short supply the price will go up and people will look for alternatives and hopefully efficiencies as well."
No one in New Zealand is going to starve, he says.
"We have lots and lots of food and lots of grass on which to grow animals that we can eat."
