Delegates from nearly 200 nations are gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, for this year’s UN climate change summit. Photo / Getty Images
Delegates from nearly 200 nations are gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, for this year’s UN climate change summit. Photo / Getty Images
Analysis by Jamie Morton
Jamie Morton, a specialist in science and environmental reporting for New Zealand's Herald, has spent the last decade writing about everything from conservation and cosmology to climate change and COVID-19.
Delegates from nearly 200 nations are gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, for this year’s UN climate change summit.
New Zealand and other countries hope to secure a new deal on climate finance and nail down rules around international carbon markets.
Critics argue New Zealand, soon to release its next emissions reductions plan, is doing far from enough to tackle the climate crisis.
New Zealand is among nearly 200 nations negotiating at the UN’s climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. What do we want there? And can we stand by our climate credentials? Jamie Morton explains.
What’s the summit about?
The UN-led COP (Conference of Parties) summits are the most importantglobal climate meetings on the calendar.
New Zealand and almost 200 other countries that signed up to the landmark Paris Agreement nearly a decade ago will gather to discuss efforts and individually set targets to avoid the worst impacts of global warming.
Negotiating teams thrash out thorny issues, such as rules around global carbon trading and climate finance – money from wealthier countries and institutions to help poorer nations decarbonise and prepare for climate impacts.
What are the big items on the agenda this year?
One giant question is whether countries can lock in efforts ambitious enough to keep alive the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit warming to within the 1.5C mark – something trajectories suggest is increasingly unlikely.
Another is striking a new climate finance deal – potentially amounting to more than a trillion dollars in funding – to support developing nations (New Zealand is contributing $1.3b over 2022-25).
Not reaching a deal could lead to weaker climate targets across the board, and the re-election of Donald Trump has stoked concerns about how much the US will be willing to stump up.
Pacific nations have been calling on the developed world to take bolder action on climate change.
Observers are also watching to see if countries will be able to fix the contentious Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and thus nail down a set of firm rules around global markets.
That would allow nations to trade carbon credits – effectively buying others’ emissions cuts and putting credits toward their own mitigation commitments – but climate advocates question whether this can be done credibly and equitably.
COP29 also sets the scene for the next round of countries’ climate pledges, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are due by February.
What does New Zealand want out of the summit?
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) says New Zealand’s three main priorities are advocating for global action, supporting our Pacific neighbours and “leveraging international opportunities” to assist efforts at home.
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts is co-chairing negotiations around international carbon markets which, while being likely important for meeting New Zealand’s targets, have emerged as a sticking point between the Government coalition.
Watts insisted to the Herald New Zealand wouldn’t be “dependent” on firming up those markets to enter into arrangements with other countries.
“For New Zealand, it provides another option, another tool in the toolkit.”
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts. Photo / Cole Eastham-Farrelly, RNZ
Watts will also be co-chairing a roundtable of Pacific ministers, with a push to secure Australia as the summit’s host nation in 2026.
He remained optimistic that nations would secure a new climate finance deal, which would be similarly important for vulnerable Pacific countries.
“While New Zealand contributes about 50% of our $1.3b to the Pacific for adaptation, we need other countries around the world to also contribute,” he said.
“The feedback we’re hearing loud and clear is there’s an appetite to get this landed.”
What is New Zealand bringing to the table?
New Zealand’s current NDC sets a headline target of halving net emissions below gross 2005 levels by 2030, with two-thirds of that coming from buying offshore offsets.
Climate advocates are keen to see New Zealand do more at home for its next NDC, covering the period starting in 2031.
Last week, the Climate Change Commission also set out ways the country could lean more on domestic action, such as increased public transport and restoring forests.
But Watts – who’s shortly set to unveil New Zealand’s second Emissions Reduction Plan after releasing a draft in July – wouldn’t be drawn on precisely what was on the cards.
Broadly, he said the Government recognised it was expected to be doing everything it could to reduce domestic emissions, but “in a manner which is practical and cognitive of the impacts in terms of cost of living”.
Agriculture accounts for around half of New Zealand's gross greenhouse emissions. Photo / Brett Phibbs
Earlier this year, it was revealed New Zealand is millions of tonnes off target for meeting its third emissions budget – the five-year-period to 2035.
Watts said the new plan would ensure the country was back on track to meeting targets.
“We’re obviously going to be leveraging the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to do the heavy lifting on aspects outside of agriculture.”
The Government has controversially exempted agriculture – responsible for half our gross emissions – from the ETS but still wants to introduce a pricing system for the sector by 2030.
How do New Zealand’s climate efforts stack up?
Despite our clean and green image, New Zealand has an outsized emissions footprint – ranking 19th per capita (it contributes 0.15% of the world’s gross emissions) – and typically gets mixed to low marks for policy and action from advocacy groups.
The independent Climate Action Tracker project currently gives New Zealand a “highly insufficient” grading – its second worst.
At last year’s UN summit, climate advocates also shamed New Zealand with the “Fossil of the Day” over the coalition Government’s decision to reverse the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration.
Green Party leader ChlöeSwarbrick said it would be “laughable” for Watts to think that decision alone wouldn’t attract criticism at Baku.
Climate campaigner Adam Currie singled out several other areas where New Zealand could be called a climate change hypocrite.
While pushing for ending government subsidies for fossil fuels around the world, he pointed out the Government recently issued free one-off allocations through the ETS.
At last year’s summit, climate advocates shamed New Zealand with the “Fossil of the Day” over the coalition Government’s decision to reverse the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration.
He also argued that lowering financial safeguards for oil companies decommissioning wells and cleaning up spills risked taxpayers effectively paying a fossil fuel subsidy.
Currie further pointed out that, despite overtures of standing with the Pacific, at UN summits New Zealand consistently voted with the Umbrella Group (made up of countries also including the US, UK, Australia and Canada) rather than the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
“We vote against the Pacific’s interests over and over again, and it’s happening again on Article 6.”
Those charges come on top of criticism over a series of domestic policy rollbacks in the space.
“In our increasingly uncertain international political climate it’s more important than ever that the Government commits to bolder action on the world stage, supported by decisions at home,” Swarbrick said.
“Actions and not just words are required to demonstrate true commitment to the intentions behind the Paris Agreement countries like ours signed up to.”
Watts, however, insisted New Zealand needed to transition away from fossil fuels, and that its coming emissions reduction plan would be clear and achievable.
“Then it’s very much moving-focused.”
Asked whether he thought New Zealand should be trying to be a leader on climate action, Watts pointed to the country’s unique emissions profile and energy mix.
“I don’t necessarily get too concerned around where other countries are, because New Zealand is different,” he said.
“And the key is that we’re doing everything that we can, we have a clear plan to do that, and we’re executing upon that plan.”
Jamie Morton is a specialist in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.
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