Analysis: Paul Eagle and the strategy behind Wellington's worst-kept secret

Paul Eagle wants to be Wellington's next mayor. Photo / Supplied

ANALYSIS:

Paul Eagle's Wellington mayoral bid was always going to be a bit messy - he's currently the MP for Rongotai, he's previously ruled out running, and he's already done a stint at Wellington City Council.

For these reasons, it's a sensible strategy to announce he wants to be the city's next mayor without revealing any specific policies yet.

He'll want to get these messy issues out of the way from the outset, so he can then focus on his plans for Wellington as the campaign heats up.

Luckily for Eagle he has quite a compelling reason to change his mind on running for mayor, potentially trigger a byelection, and leave behind his dream of being an MP to make a return to local body politics.

Wellington is in serious trouble.

Pipes are bursting, housing is unaffordable, the central city is tired, a multi-billion-dollar transport plan lacks pace, and what has come to be known as a dysfunctional city council is presiding over all of it.

If incumbent Andy Foster decides to run again, he will have his work cut out for him defending his term against such a backdrop - whether all the problems are his fault or not.

Timing is everything in politics and this year's local body elections clearly represent an opportunity for any Wellington mayoral candidate to take the reins.

In recent weeks several media outlets have started beating the drum for Eagle to confirm Wellington's worst-kept secret (that he's running).

But it's worth noting that candidate nominations aren't even officially open yet. This doesn't happen until Friday July 15, and they then close on Friday August 12.

In 2019 Foster literally announced his campaign on the day nominations closed.

So from Eagle's point of view, the announcement of his campaign is comfortably on time.

His bid also comes after the first time Aotearoa has had a public holiday to celebrate Matariki.

Eagle took the opportunity of integrating a weekend of new beginnings with his mayoral announcement.

It also just so happened that yesterday a wastewater rising main burst outside the closed central library on Victoria St, painting a perfect picture of what's wrong with the city.

It was also revealed over the weekend that Wellington has plunged down the latest rankings of the world's most liveable cities, along with Auckland.

But the capital made the biggest drop out of any city in the 2022 Global Liveability Index, falling from fourth place last year to 50th this year.

On the question of Rongotai, Eagle has confirmed he will take unpaid leave for three months while he is campaigning.

His salary will be donated to charity.

If his mayoral bid is successful, he will resign as the local MP, triggering a byelection.

But he is yet to make a call on whether he would stand again for the Rongotai seat in next year's general election, in the event he failed to win the city's top job.

Eagle is a strong contender for the mayoralty, especially because name recognition counts for a lot in local body elections.

He will face off with Green Party-endorsed candidate Tory Whanau, who announced she was running last year.

Wellington's mayoral race has kicked off.